Bitcoin Dips Despite Strong US Jobs Data

Bitcoin is currently trading at $108,859, experiencing a slight decline despite the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. macro data. The June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report indicated a gain of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the forecasted 111,000. However, the market's reaction was mixed. Wage growth slowed to 0.2%, unemployment increased to 4.1%, and the ISM Services PMI remained just above the expansion threshold at 50.8.

Despite an 8.2% increase in factory orders, concerns about labor market softness and the independence of the Federal Reserve, following comments by Trump, continue to limit significant rebounds in the dollar. This has helped Bitcoin maintain its position as an alternative asset, even though risk appetite remains cautious.

With markets anticipating at least one Fed rate cut before the end of the year, the environment remains generally supportive for cryptocurrencies, especially if inflation readings continue to decrease.

The technical outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, as the cryptocurrency has been respecting an ascending trendline since the June 21 low, consistently making higher lows on the 2-hour chart. This trend remains intact, with support seen around $108,371, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) meets the trendline—a critical technical confluence.

However, there are early signs of momentum fatigue. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned red, and signal lines are curling down, although there is no confirmed bearish crossover yet. Recent candles near the $110,413 resistance level are small-bodied, indicating indecision and waning buyer strength.

If the price holds this zone and prints a reversal candle, such as a hammer or bullish engulfing pattern, bulls could regain control, targeting $110,400 and $112,041. However, a close below $108,300 may open the door for a sharper decline to $107,325 and $105,368, with broader trendline support near $103,748 offering the next significant cushion.

This setup is classic for traders watching structural support. The buy scenario involves looking for bullish candlestick confirmation above $108,300, with target levels at $110,400 and $112,041. A bearish breakdown, indicated by a close below $108,300, could push the price toward $107,300 and $105,000. Indicators to watch include the MACD crossover, EMA slope, and volume spike.

From experience, trendline support like this doesn’t give way quietly. If bulls show up here, we may see a strong rotation higher. But if they don’t, the risk increases for a technical shakeout that could catch over-leveraged long positions off guard.