Bitcoin Dips 1.2% Amid Fed Caution, Traders Eye $145,000

Bitcoin has maintained a steady position above $104,000, with traders anticipating a historically bullish second half of the year. The cryptocurrency market experienced a slight decline on Thursday, influenced by hawkish macro guidance and global trade concerns. Bitcoin hovered near $104,700 during Asia hours, slipping 1.2% over 24 hours, while Ethereum traded just below $2,860, down 1.8% on the day. This soft price action reflects broader macro unease following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged but maintain a cautious, inflation-sensitive stance.

Historically, the June-July period has seen subdued activity in crypto markets, with Bitcoin front-end implied volumes slipping under 40%. This has erased the risk premium from recent geopolitical tensions, according to Singapore-based QCP Capital. Open interest across Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals remains flat, and option markets skew negative, with puts trading at a premium to calls. This indicates that traders are hedging against short-term pullbacks.

Despite the cautious near-term setup, the technical picture remains supportive of another push to the topside. Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, noted that Bitcoin continues to consolidate bullishly. A move through recent highs could set up a run toward $145,000. Ethereum, while still lagging its 2021 highs, is gaining momentum. Clearing $2,900 could bring $3,400 into play, according to Kruger.

One positive development for the crypto market is the U.S. Senate’s passage of a stablecoin framework. This adds another building block to a more regulatory-friendly global environment, reinforcing broader institutional conviction. Kruger highlighted that globally, there is continued progress promising greater clarity and a more welcoming environment for institutional crypto adoption.

However, the near-term setup remains cautious. Month-end OPEX flows, systematic rebalancing, and a lack of fresh catalysts could keep Bitcoin stuck in its $102,000–$108,000 band for now. But with the second half of the year historically strong for crypto, some desks are already looking ahead. Kruger suggested that the worst may be behind us, and the next leg up could catch many off guard.