Bitcoin’s Dip Signals Reset Phase, Swissblock Flags Path to 20-30% Rally

Swissblock’s analysis of Bitcoin’s price action in late September 2025 highlights a critical juncture in the market, with the platform emphasizing that a “risk-off signal” has not been triggered despite the cryptocurrency’s recent retreat below key support levels. According to Swissblock’s aggregated impulse technical indicator—measuring exponential price structure across the top 350 digital assets—Bitcoin and altcoins are entering a “reset phase” that historically precedes significant rallies. The platform noted that in the seven prior instances since 2024 when this signal activated, Bitcoin subsequently surged 20-30%, while altcoins gained 50-150% The Daily Hodl, (https://dailyhodl.com/2025/09/26/bitcoin-bottomed-out-the-last-seven-times-this-signal-flashed-says-analytics-platform-heres-the-outlook/)^[1].

Current data shows 22% of altcoins exhibit a negative impulse, aligning with Swissblock’s historical threshold of 15-25% for bottom formation. This suggests a potential inflection point for Ethereum and altcoins, which are expected to lead the next market rotation once the reset completes. The indicator’s accuracy, attributed to its focus on exponential price dynamics, positions it as one of the most reliable tools for identifying turning points in the crypto market The Daily Hodl, (https://dailyhodl.com/2025/09/26/bitcoin-bottomed-out-the-last-seven-times-this-signal-flashed-says-analytics-platform-heres-the-outlook/)^[1].

Bitcoin’s price action has drawn particular scrutiny as it fell below the $110,000 support level, a psychological barrier that had held for weeks. However, Swissblock’s on-chain analysis contradicts conventional bearish interpretations. The platform’s proprietary Bitcoin Risk Index—a metric aggregating on-chain valuation and cost-basis data—remains near zero, signaling low volatility and bullish sentiment despite the 5% weekly decline. This divergence between price action and risk metrics has led Swissblock to argue that the drop is a “buying opportunity” rather than a systemic risk NewsBTC, (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/ca28b-bitcoin-loses-110000-support-but-risk-signal-says-market-is-safe-details)^[2].

Institutional demand is identified as a key driver for the next phase of Bitcoin’s recovery. While September’s price performance exceeded expectations, ETF inflows weakened in the month’s second half, indicating a need for renewed institutional participation. Swissblock attributes this to “classic late-cycle behavior” among long-term Bitcoin holders, who are reducing their holdings. However, the absence of a high-risk regime negates immediate bearish signals, creating an environment where institutions could “mop up” discounted supply NewsBTC, (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/ca28b-bitcoin-loses-110000-support-but-risk-signal-says-market-is-safe-details)^[2].

The platform’s forward-looking analysis aligns with historical patterns observed by crypto analyst Lark Davis. Bitcoin’s 8% decline in late September mirrors its 2023 and 2024 performances, which were followed by Q4 rallies of 77% and 101%, respectively. This “rektember” playbook suggests a seasonal bullish bias, with Swissblock predicting a retest of the $110,000 level as a critical near-term catalyst. A failure to hold above this threshold could expose the $105,500-$100,000 range, though the platform views this as a “max pain” scenario that may liquidate short-term speculative positions The Daily Hodl, (https://dailyhodl.com/2025/09/26/bitcoin-bottomed-out-the-last-seven-times-this-signal-flashed-says-analytics-platform-heres-the-outlook/)^[1].

Key support levels identified by Swissblock and other analytics firms include $112,000, $110,000, and the short-term holder cost basis at $111,400. These levels represent a delicate balance between bullish conviction and bearish pressure, with sustained trading below $111,400 signaling a potential shift to a mid- to long-term bearish structure . Meanwhile, institutional positioning and derivatives markets remain stable, with funding rates and liquidation volumes within normal ranges, further supporting the argument against a systemic downturn NewsBTC, (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/ca28b-bitcoin-loses-110000-support-but-risk-signal-says-market-is-safe-details)^[2].

The analysis underscores the importance of distinguishing between short-term volatility and long-term market fundamentals. While Bitcoin’s price has tested critical psychological barriers, the absence of a risk-off signal and the alignment of on-chain metrics with historical bullish patterns suggest a resilient market structure. Institutional participation and seasonal trends are likely to play pivotal roles in determining whether Bitcoin reclaims its $120,000 peak or consolidates in a broader trading range.