Bitcoin Demand Hits Historic Low, Price Above $100,000 At Risk

Bitcoin demand has reached a historic low, with the spot demand momentum recording its most negative value ever, falling below the -2 million BTC mark. This significant drop in demand indicates a considerable divergence between the price and underlying buying pressure, despite prices remaining robust above $100,000. The 30-day Bitcoin demand momentum has turned sharply negative, reflecting investors' reluctance to enter the market at current levels. The inflow of new money has been significantly drying up, with the number of new participants purchasing on the spot market decreasing.

Since late May, the supply of short-term holders has decreased by 5.3 million to 4.5 million BTC, indicating a departure among newer investors. This decline suggests a lack of interest in speculation and a decrease in the inflow of new capital. The supply structure remains controlled by long-term holders, implying a belief in long-term value but a lack of near-term liquidity. Unless there are new inflows to offset this, the market might struggle to maintain a bullish trend.

The total Bitcoin held in reserves on exchanges hit a low of 2.4 million BTC, a multi-year low. This decline traditionally points to long-term accumulation but currently comes alongside a deterioration in demand momentum. The net exchange outflows are significant, with institutional activity playing a role. The total amount of Bitcoin public companies hold exceeds $87 billion, constituting approximately 3.2% of the total supply. This 170% increase in corporate holdings in the last year supports the theory that institutions are moving Bitcoin out of retail markets.

Bitcoin's support zone is a target area between $94,000 and $97,900 as determined by the 111-day and 200-day averages and the realized price of short-term holders. These levels have been successfully used in the past to support corrections. At the moment, Bitcoin is resting well above this area, although as the current negative trend of demand continues, the possibility of a retest is rising. Should the momentum not recover and the short-term holders remain underwater, the price of $100,000 may come under pressure in the next few weeks.

Traders are cautious, with many avoiding new positions until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs. The market is sending mixed signals, with retail demand shrinking and ETF inflows tapering. However, whales are accumulating, and technical support still holds. Miner-related metrics suggest that Bitcoin is near a buy zone, not a blowout. If Bitcoin breaks below $103,000, the road to $92,000 or even $81,000 opens fast. But if institutional accumulation continues and global tensions ease, a sharp rebound could follow just as quickly. Investors should stay vigilant, focusing on data and discipline rather than emotion.