Bitcoin's Deleveraging and OI Collapse: Is the Bottom in Sight?

The Bitcoin market in late November 2025 is navigating a critical inflection point, marked by a sharp decline in open interest (OI) and a broader macroeconomic shift as the U.S. Federal Reserve pivots toward accommodative policy. With Bitcoin stabilizing near $91,000 after a volatile week, traders and analysts are debating whether this represents a temporary capitulation or the formation of a durable bottom. This analysis synthesizes technical and macroeconomic signals to assess the likelihood of a near-term reversal.

Technical Analysis: Open Interest and Price Action

Bitcoin's open interest has collapsed by approximately 30% since its October 7 peak, with U.S. futures OI now standing at 737,540 BTC ($66.54 billion) as of November 18. This represents the sharpest 30-day drop in the current cycle, according to analyst "Darkfost," who notes that OI has fallen to 1.3 million BTC ($114 billion) as Bitcoin traded at $87,500. Such a decline in OI-a measure of the total number of open derivative contracts-typically signals a period of deleveraging, where aggressive long positions are unwound, and speculative capital exits the market.

Historically, such phases have preceded consolidation or bullish reversals, provided liquidity remains intact. The current price stabilization near $91,000 suggests that key support levels may be holding, but the lack of fresh buying pressure-evidenced by the OI contraction-indicates a fragile market structure. Analysts like Darkfost argue that this "cleansing phase" could ultimately lead to a solid bottom, setting the stage for renewed bullish momentum if OI stabilizes and price action breaks above critical resistance levels.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Fed Policy and Liquidity Shifts

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory is a critical variable. On December 1, 2025, the Fed will conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) program, which had been in place since June 2022 to reduce its balance sheet and withdraw liquidity. This marks a pivotal shift toward quantitative easing (QE), with liquidity injections planned to begin in January 2026. Simultaneously, the Fed has cut the federal funds rate target to 3.75%–4.00%, signaling a more accommodative stance.

These moves are designed to counteract stubborn inflation-still above the 2% target-while addressing a gradually cooling labor market. The reintroduction of tariffs has further complicated inflation dynamics, with global rates expected to remain elevated through 2026. However, the Fed's pivot to QE and lower rates could provide a tailwind for risk assets like Bitcoin, which historically perform better in low-interest-rate environments.

Interplay Between Bitcoin and Macro Trends

The delayed release of U.S. jobs data and disrupted Commitments of Traders (COT) reports due to government shutdowns have added uncertainty to the market. This lack of clarity has forced traders to rely more heavily on technical indicators and macroeconomic narratives. The Fed's shift from QT to QE, however, offers a clear directional signal: liquidity is returning to financial markets, which could alleviate downward pressure on Bitcoin.

That said, Bitcoin's price action remains contingent on the resolution of key macroeconomic data. A stronger-than-expected inflation report or a hawkish pivot by the Fed could reignite selling pressure, while a dovish outcome and stable OI could catalyze a rebound. The current stabilization near $91,000 suggests that short-term sellers may be exhausted, but a definitive bottom will require confirmation from both price and volume metrics.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Setup for a Bullish Reversal

Bitcoin's deleveraging phase and the Fed's policy shift create a complex but potentially constructive backdrop. The collapse in OI indicates a market in distress, but the absence of further price declines suggests that key support levels are holding. If the Fed's QE program gains traction and inflation trends align with the central bank's 2% target, Bitcoin could see renewed buying interest in early 2026.

However, the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty. Traders must monitor the Fed's December meeting outcomes, the resumption of COT reports in January 2026, and the interplay between Bitcoin's technical structure and macroeconomic data. For now, the market appears to be in a holding pattern, with the potential for a bullish breakout dependent on the Fed's ability to engineer a soft landing and stabilize inflation.