Bitcoin's December 2025 Deribit Options Expiry: Assessing the Risk of Max Pain and Positioning for Volatility

As Bitcoin approaches its December 26, 2025, options expiry on Deribit, the market is bracing for a $13.3 billion notional value event, marked by a stark imbalance in open interest and a high concentration of bullish positioning. With Bitcoin trading near $88,000 as of November 26, 2025, the interplay between max pain levels and institutional positioning raises critical questions about market manipulation risks and strategic risk management for investors.

Max Pain Analysis: A Tipping Point at $100,000?

Max pain, the price level where the maximum number of options expire worthless, is a critical metric for assessing market dynamics. Deribit's December 2025 expiry shows a clear concentration of open interest in the $100,000–$118,000 range, with the $100,000 strike leading at 15,517 BTC in open interest, followed by $112,000 (14,062 BTC), $106,000 (13,090 BTC), and $118,000 (13,066 BTC). These four strikes collectively account for over 55,000 BTC in open interest, representing nearly 60% of the total call-side positioning.

The current spot price of $88,000 as of November 26, 2025 suggests a potential upward bias toward the $100,000 max pain level, where the largest number of options would expire out of the money. However, the dominance of call options-63% of total open interest, with 92,692 BTC in calls versus 61,086 BTC in puts according to CoinDesk-further reinforces the likelihood of a price rally to this threshold. This imbalance creates a self-fulfilling prophecy: market participants may act to push Bitcoin toward $100,000 to maximize their gains, while others hedge against a potential shortfall.

Market Manipulation Risks: The $1.74 Billion Call Condor

A single institutional trade executed via Paradigm on November 24, 2025, has injected $1.74 billion in open interest into the $100,000–$118,000 range, representing 13% of the total $13.3 billion notional value for December 2025 options. This call condor structure-a neutral-to-bullish strategy-bets that Bitcoin will settle between $100,000 and $118,000 at expiry, with limited upside beyond $118,000.

Such a large position raises concerns about market manipulation. If the trader controls a significant portion of the open interest, they could theoretically influence Bitcoin's price to align with their target range. For instance, a coordinated effort to push Bitcoin toward $100,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations or forced buying/selling among other market participants. This risk is amplified by the fact that the $100,000 strike has the highest open interest, making it a focal point for price action.

Moreover, the bearish $80,000 put strike-holding $2.01 billion in open interest-introduces a floor scenario. If Bitcoin dips below this level, the put-heavy positioning could trigger a short-covering rally. However, the overall call dominance suggests that the market is more incentivized to push prices upward than downward.

Strategic Risk Management: Navigating Volatility and Positioning

For investors, the December 2025 expiry presents both opportunities and hazards. Here are three strategic considerations:

1. Hedging Against Max Pain: Given the high concentration of open interest at $100,000, investors holding Bitcoin should consider short-term put options to hedge against a potential pullback if the market fails to reach max pain. Conversely, those bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory might use call options to capitalize on the expected volatility.

2. Monitoring Institutional Activity: The $1.74 billion call condor represents a significant portion of the total notional value. Investors should closely track open interest changes and order flow in the $100,000–$118,000 range to anticipate potential manipulation attempts. A sudden withdrawal of liquidity from these strikes could signal a shift in market sentiment.

3. Exploiting Imbalances: The put-call ratio of 0.66 indicates a strong bullish bias. Traders might employ volatility-based strategies, such as straddles or strangles, to profit from the expected price swings. For example, a straddle near $100,000 could benefit from either a sharp rally or a pullback, depending on how the market resolves the open interest imbalance.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Expiry

Bitcoin's December 2025 Deribit options expiry is a high-stakes event with the potential to reshape short-term price dynamics. The concentration of open interest at $100,000, combined with a $1.74 billion institutional bet, creates a volatile environment where max pain and market manipulation risks are intertwined. While the current spot price suggests a path toward the $100,000 threshold, investors must remain vigilant against potential manipulation and position themselves to navigate the inevitable turbulence.

As the expiry date approaches, the market's ability to absorb or react to these large positions will be a defining factor in Bitcoin's price trajectory. Strategic risk management-through hedging, liquidity monitoring, and volatility-based strategies-will be essential for investors seeking to capitalize on this pivotal event.