Bitcoin/Dai Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from 103,945.02 to 103,417.51, closing 24 hours at 103,417.51.
• Key support seen at 103,000–103,500 range amid moderate volatility.
• Volume spiked in late-night hours, signaling potential short-term reversal.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 103,417.51 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 104,439.24, and closed at 103,417.51 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. The total volume over the 24-hour period was 1.16 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 120,142 DAI. The price action reflected a volatile bearish bias, with multiple downward breakouts and failed attempts to retest higher levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks, especially in the 19:00–21:00 ET timeframe. These suggest increasing seller pressure and a lack of follow-through buying. Key support levels emerged around 103,000–103,500 DAI, with price bouncing off this range multiple times. A notable resistance appeared at 104,000–104,500, where the price failed to retest after earlier highs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show the price has consistently closed below both lines for much of the 24-hour window, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart (projected from 15-minute data), the 50/100/200-day moving averages are not fully available, but the 50-period line would likely lie above current price levels if projected, indicating a longer-term bearish tilt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning hours, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a widening negative divergence, suggesting increasing bear pressure. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) around 06:00–07:00 ET but failed to rebound strongly, indicating limited buying interest. This suggests that while the market is oversold, a reversal is not guaranteed and could be delayed without a strong bullish catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight session as price moved through the lower band and retested it multiple times. A contraction occurred briefly around 03:00–05:00 ET, followed by a breakout to the downside. The price currently sits near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting it is near a short-term support zone that could hold or be broken in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly from 02:00–06:00 ET and again in the 09:00–10:00 ET window, coinciding with key price declines. Notional turnover mirrored this, with notable spikes at 103,000 and 103,500 levels. The divergence between price and volume is limited, with volume generally confirming bearish moves. However, the lack of large-volume upswings suggests limited institutional or large-cap buyer involvement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 103,417.51–104,439.24 swing, the 61.8% retrace level aligns with the current price of approximately 103,417.51, indicating a potential short-term consolidation or reversal zone. On the daily timeframe, the 50% and 61.8% levels align with 103,500–103,700, which were tested multiple times over the past 24 hours, with no clear break above this range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The data suggests that implementing a "Bearish Engulfing" pattern-based strategy could have generated sell signals in this pair during key price reversals. Although the full technical-pattern feed for BTCDAI is not accessible, the candlestick data shows several such patterns (e.g., late-night bearish engulfers), indicating opportunities to act. A backtest using historical BTC-DAI data or a highly liquid pair like BTCUSDT would allow validation of this approach. Using this pair, one could test a strategy of selling at the close following a bearish engulfing pattern and holding for 24 hours, leveraging the market’s short-term bearish momentum.