Bitcoin/Dai Market Overview for 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price surged from 104,938 to 107,367 DAI, reflecting bullish momentum in early hours.
• Volatility and volume spiked during the 2025-11-11 01:30 ET session, confirming strong buying pressure.
• RSI overbought at 70+, signaling possible correction ahead.

BTCDAI opened at 104,938 DAI and surged to a high of 107,367 DAI by 01:30 ET before retreating to 104,970 DAI as of 12:00 ET. Total volume was 1.799 BTC with a notional turnover of $189,296,000. The price action reveals a volatile 24-hour session with clear momentum and pullback dynamics.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period on BTCDAI revealed multiple key levels of support and resistance. A strong bull engulfing pattern emerged at 105,257 DAI during the 17:00–17:15 ET timeframe, followed by a bearish harami pattern at 106,133 DAI around 21:30 ET, signaling short-term indecision. A critical support level formed at 105,000 DAI, which held during a sharp pullback in the early morning hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (105,400 DAI) crossed above the 50-period MA (105,250 DAI), forming a golden cross. This crossover supported the bullish bias in the early trading hours. On the daily chart, the price closed above the 200-period MA, indicating a continuation of the longer-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line (12:00 ET: +1,150) crossed above the signal line around 00:15 ET, confirming bullish momentum. RSI peaked at 71 during the 01:30 ET hour, entering overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 01:30–03:00 ET period, with price reaching the upper band at 107,367 DAI. By the following hour, price fell below the midline and into the lower third of the band, suggesting a possible mean reversion trade opportunity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 0.276 BTC during the 01:30 ET hour, correlating with a sharp rally to the session high. This volume surge confirmed the bullish breakout. However, a divergence appeared between price and volume in the 05:30–06:00 ET timeframe, as volume declined despite a lower close, hinting at weakening bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.618 Fibonacci level at 106,475 DAI served as a key resistance zone in the early morning. The price briefly touched the 0.382 retracement level at 105,723 DAI before bouncing higher during the 17:00–18:00 ET period. These levels helped define short-term price boundaries and potential reversal points.

Backtest Hypothesis

An interactive module containing the full strategy description, conditions, and performance statistics is available for exploration. This includes backtesting parameters that align with the observed Fibonacci levels, RSI overbought signals, and volume confirmation. The hypothesis leverages breakout entries on the 15-minute chart and exits based on RSI divergence and Bollinger Band reversion.