Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) Market Overview: 24-Hour Price Surge and Mixed Momentum

• Price surged to a high of $115,613.65, a 3.3% gain from the prior day’s close.
• Volatility expanded with a range of $11,913.65 amid mixed momentum signals.
• A key resistance at $115,413.65 held twice but failed to trigger a reversal.
• Turnover spiked at $115,000.00 and $114,088.01, aligning with sharp price moves.
• Downturns from key highs were confirmed by bearish volume divergence and overbought RSI.

The Bitcoin/Dai pair (BTCDAI) opened at $112,732.48 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $114,486.62 the following day. The 24-hour high reached $115,613.65, while the low was $113,000.00. Total volume traded over the period amounted to 1.68 BTC, with a notional turnover of $187,876.32 in DAI equivalents.

Structurally, the pair formed a bullish continuation pattern, with a strong breakout from the $114,088.01 resistance level followed by a pullback. Key support levels emerged at $114,000.00, $113,800.00, and $112,700.00, with the first two being repeatedly tested and held during retracements. A bearish engulfing pattern developed after the price hit $115,613.65, signaling potential exhaustion in the upward trend. Additionally, a shooting star appeared at $115,597.57, suggesting short-term bearish pressure.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover at $114,300.00, with price action staying above both. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day averages were aligned to the upside, reinforcing the intermediate bullish bias. However, the 100-day line at $113,600.00 acted as a dynamic floor in the early part of the session.

MACD remained in positive territory throughout, with a divergence forming after the price reached $115,613.65, hinting at potential overbought conditions. RSI hit 80+ at key highs and has since pulled back to 62–64, indicating moderate momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, with price closing just inside the upper band at $115,413.65, a sign of increased volatility. The middle band currently rests at $114,200.00, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent $113,000.00–$115,613.65 swing.

Fibonacci retracements of the $113,000.00–$115,613.65 move identified key levels at $114,497.50 (38.2%), $113,967.50 (61.8%), and $113,475.00 (78.6%). Price action found support at $114,486.62, the 38.2% level, before resuming the bullish trend. On the daily chart, the $113,800.00 level aligns with a key 61.8% retracement and appears to be consolidating as a critical psychological floor.

Volume and turnover were mixed, with sharp surges at key price levels such as $115,000.00, $114,088.01, and $113,000.00. The highest notional turnover occurred at $115,000.00, with $113,800.00 showing a smaller but consistent buying interest. A divergence between rising prices and declining volume during the $115,613.65 peak suggests potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum.

The current setup appears to favor a continued consolidation around $114,400.00–$114,600.00, with a possible test of $115,613.65 if the 20-period MA holds. However, a break below $113,800.00 could trigger a deeper retracement to $113,000.00, where the 78.6% level offers potential support. Investors should monitor RSI behavior and volume during these levels for directional clues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A plausible backtesting strategy could focus on a breakout from the upper Bollinger Band, with a sell trigger when price retraces to the 61.8% Fibonacci level or below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. This aligns with the observed overbought RSI and bearish divergence in the MACD, suggesting a high probability of pullback. A trailing stop-loss could be placed just below the $113,800.00 level. Given the recent price action and Fibonacci retracement alignment, this setup could be tested using the BTCDAI ticker for entries between October 12 and October 13, with exits based on the identified key support.