Bitcoin's Cycle Tops Decline 15× to 2.65× 2Y SMA, New Resistance at $159,000

Bitcoin’s euphoric 15× rallies are a thing of the past, but this does not necessarily indicate that the cryptocurrency has reached its peak. The cycle tops for Bitcoin have steadily declined from 15× to 2.65× the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA). Despite these lower cycle multiples, Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of structural strength, suggesting potential for significant growth with a new resistance target of $159,000.

Historically, Bitcoin’s early bull runs were characterized by explosive growth, with tops occurring at 15× the 2Y SMA. These dramatic upswings were driven by speculative growth in a thin market and early adopters. However, starting from 2017, the market began to change as Bitcoin gained global recognition. The crypto’s growth, while still impressive, became more subdued. During this period, the top was reached around 10× the 2Y SMA, indicating high volatility amidst growing maturity.

In 2021, institutional investment surged, but the cycle’s peak dropped again, first hitting 5×, then reversing around 2.65× the 2Y SMA. This marked a significant shift: Bitcoin was transitioning from being just a speculative trade to becoming a macro asset. The 2.65× multiple remains a key marker, reflecting lower volatility, deeper liquidity, and a more mature user base. Currently, this level sits around $159,000, suggesting that if Bitcoin experiences a major upswing, $159,000 will act as the next key resistance.

Despite the diminishing cycle tops, there is still room for growth. Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently around 2.4, indicating that the market is still below euphoria territory. Historically, Bitcoin tops have emerged around 3.5 to 4.0, suggesting that there is still potential for growth before the cycle tops. Additionally, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) remains in the belief/denial zone, not yet in greed or euphoria. This maturity in market behavior suggests that BTC holders are unlikely to pursue extreme profit-taking, as they expect higher prices for the current cycle.

In conclusion, while future cycles may not experience a 15× surge, there is still room for growth. Bitcoin is now more stable, less volatile, and a more reliable investment. In the current market, BTC still has room for growth. If the cycle’s momentum holds and BTC surpasses $110,000, a surge to $159,000 levels could be possible. However, in the short term, this is unlikely, and this level could be where markets cool down for the current cycle.