Bitcoin Cycle Top Model Predicts September 2025 and March 2026 Peaks

A novel Bitcoin cycle top model, inspired by Benjamin Cowen’s analysis, identifies critical dates for potential market peaks by linking all-time highs with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). This approach has demonstrated notable accuracy across multiple Bitcoin cycles, suggesting September 2025 and March 2026 as key periods to watch for macro turning points.

According to crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, while this model is not a definitive forecast, it provides a valuable framework for understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior and timing. The model correlates the cryptocurrency’s previous all-time highs (ATHs) with its 200-week SMA, focusing on the intersection points between the SMA and historical ATH levels as indicators of potential market peaks. Historically, these intersection points have aligned closely with Bitcoin’s cycle tops, providing a quantifiable approach to anticipate macro turning points. The model’s application across multiple Bitcoin cycles reveals a pattern of recurring timing signals, underscoring the 200-week SMA’s significance as a long-term trend indicator in the volatile crypto market.

Examining past Bitcoin cycles, the model demonstrated remarkable precision. In Cycle A, the predicted top coincided almost exactly with the point where the 200-week SMA and the ATH intersected, confirming the model’s potential utility. Cycle B followed suit, with the forecasted peak closely matching the actual market high, reinforcing the model’s consistency. However, Cycle C introduced some timing deviation, with the actual top occurring 42 days after the projected intersection. This discrepancy highlights the inherent volatility and unpredictability of cryptocurrency markets, cautioning investors to consider the model as a guiding framework rather than an absolute predictor.

Looking ahead, EGRAG CRYPTO’s projections extend the 200-week SMA forward, identifying two geometrically significant dates—September 2025 and March 2026—as potential Bitcoin cycle tops. These dates emerge from the model’s pattern recognition of past intersections, suggesting that Bitcoin’s next macro highs could materialize within these windows. While the model offers intriguing insights, EGRAG emphasizes the risks associated with relying on long-term averages in a market characterized by rapid fluctuations and external influences. Investors and analysts should integrate this model with other fundamental and technical analyses to form a comprehensive market outlook.

The 200-week SMA model complements existing analytical tools by providing a macro-level timing perspective, which can be particularly useful for long-term investors and institutional participants. By focusing on historical price behavior and moving average trends, the model adds depth to cycle analysis beyond short-term price movements. Moreover, this approach encourages market participants to consider the structural rhythm of Bitcoin’s price evolution, fostering more informed decision-making. As the crypto market matures, such models may gain prominence in strategic planning and risk management frameworks.

This innovative Bitcoin cycle top model, linking all-time highs with the 200-week SMA, offers a compelling framework to anticipate potential market peaks in September 2025 and March 2026. While not a definitive forecast, it enriches the discourse on Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior by providing quantifiable timing signals grounded in historical data. Investors should view this model as one component within a diversified analytical toolkit, balancing its insights with broader market factors to navigate the complexities of cryptocurrency investing effectively.