Bitcoin Cycle Incomplete As Puell Multiple Awaits Phase 4

The Puell Multiple, a key on-chain indicator, suggests that Bitcoin's current cycle is still incomplete, as Phase 4 has yet to commence. This phase is historically associated with significant price movements and market euphoria. The gap between Phases 3 and 4 is the longest ever recorded, indicating a more gradual maturation of the cycle rather than a deviation from historical patterns.

The Puell Multiple is an on-chain metric that compares daily Bitcoin issuance to its yearly average, helping to identify major market tops and bottoms through four distinct phases. These phases include Capitulation, Recovery, Expansion, and Euphoria. Currently, Bitcoin is between Phase 3 and Phase 4, but this delay does not invalidate the cycle; it simply means the cycle is progressing at a different pace.

Analysts tracking the Puell Multiple observe that, despite market uncertainty, Bitcoin's cycle structure remains on track when viewed long-term. Fundamentals such as tightening supply, rising institutional interest, and aligned on-chain signals with previous bull runs support this view. The absence of Phase 4 so far may actually be a bullish sign, suggesting that the largest upside movement might still be ahead.

For those anticipating the euphoric top, it is important to note that the cycle is not yet complete. The Puell Multiple's current reading indicates a state of caution, with over 95% of Bitcoin holders in profitable positions. This high percentage of profitable holders presents a double-edged sword: while it reflects strong market sentiment, it also increases the risk of a sell-off if market conditions change.

Historically, Phase 4 has been characterized by sideways movement or minor corrections rather than a full-blown bear market. However, current market conditions, including the overall economic environment and regulatory developments, could influence how this phase unfolds. Investors and traders are advised to remain vigilant and employ risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and diversifying their portfolios. The Puell Multiple, while a valuable tool, should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analyses to make informed investment decisions.