Is Bitcoin's Current Bottom Real or Just a Pause Before the Next Downturn?

The crypto market is at a crossroads. Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has sparked a critical debate: Is the recent pullback a legitimate bottom, or is it merely a temporary reprieve before the next leg down? Let's dissect the technical and on-chain signals to determine whether bears are still in control-or if a sustainable recovery is on the horizon.

Technical Divergence: A Bearish Warning Bell

Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has painted a troubling picture. A hidden bearish divergence formed between November 18 and 24, as the price made a lower high while the RSI recorded a higher high according to analysis. This mismatch between price and momentum suggests that buyers are losing steam, even as the asset clings to key support levels. Compounding this, CMT-certified analyst has identified a triple bearish divergence on higher timeframes according to technical analysis. Here, Bitcoin hit three successive higher highs while technical indicators formed three lower highs-a classic sign of trend exhaustion. , warning of a 60-70% drawdown from recent highs if the breakdown confirms according to technical analysis.

Meanwhile, the 20/50 EMA breakdown has added to the bearish narrative. On November 16, a occurred when the 50-day EMA dipped below the 200-day EMA-a historically bearish signal according to market data. Bitcoin's price has since fallen below critical moving averages, according to analysis. This breakdown, coupled with the RSI hovering below 30 (oversold territory), indicates a dominant bearish regime according to technical analysis. However, oversold conditions alone are not a guarantee of a reversal; they merely highlight extreme fear.

On-Chain Signals: Whales Accumulate, But Retail Frets

On-chain data reveals a mixed bag. While large holders () are accumulating, smaller investors are capitulating. The number of addresses holding according to whale activity data. according to on-chain analysis, according to institutional analysis. This accumulation suggests some institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.

Yet, the picture is far from bullish. Mid-cycle holders-wallets active within the past five years-are driving the sell-off according to on-chain data, according to market reports. according to whale activity data, signaling heightened distribution. This duality-whales buying while mid-sized investors sell-reflects a market in transition, where panic-driven retail selling meets strategic institutional positioning.

Macroeconomic Headwinds: The Fed's Shadow

Bitcoin's fate is increasingly tied to macroeconomic forces. The Federal Reserve's shift from dovish expectations to a "higher-for-longer" rate policy has tightened financial conditions according to macroeconomic analysis. according to market analysis, meaning it's mirroring the risks faced by broader equities. ETF outflows have exacerbated the selloff, according to market data.

Are the Support Levels Holding?

, . However, these levels face skepticism. The triple bearish divergence and EMA breakdowns suggest that the current consolidation could be a prelude to further weakness. Severino emphasizes the need for a break of and a move below the 20/50 EMA to confirm the downtrend according to technical analysis. Until then, the market remains in a precarious balancing act.

Conclusion: Proceed with Caution

While the hidden bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe hints at weakening selling pressure according to technical analysis, the broader technical and on-chain signals lean decisively bearish. The triple divergence, Death Cross, and whale-driven distribution all point to a market struggling to find a bottom. Investors should brace for volatility and consider the possibility of a 60-70% retracement before declaring a sustainable recovery.

In this environment, patience is key. Until Bitcoin reclaims the 20-day EMA or forms a higher low on the daily chart according to market analysis, the bears retain the upper hand. For now, the question isn't whether the bottom is real-it's how much lower we might go before the next act begins.