Bitcoin: The Cryptocurrency Set to Soar 15,810% According to Michael Saylor

Cryptocurrency has been on a rollercoaster ride since President Donald Trump's re-election in November 2024. Prices surged as investors got excited about the Trump administration's friendly approach toward digital currency. However, weak economic data and an intense market sell-off during the past month has spilled into the cryptocurrency sector, sending prices way down from recent highs. Despite the volatility, one prominent figure in the crypto world, Michael Saylor, remains bullish on Bitcoin, predicting a 15,810% increase in its value over time.

Saylor, the executive chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has been a vocal advocate for Bitcoin. He believes that several specific factors will drive Bitcoin's price to soar. One of the key factors is Bitcoin's scarcity. With a finite supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin is a deflationary asset, which Saylor believes will drive its value higher over time. He states, "Bitcoin makes up such a small fraction of global wealth (0.1% when it traded at $65,000). However, he sees this share increasing. At $13 million, Bitcoin would make up 7% of global wealth, which he views as a plausible scenario."

Another factor that Saylor believes will drive Bitcoin's price is the Trump administration's pro-crypto approach. Trump has placed pro-crypto officials in his cabinet and has pro-crypto advisors. We've already seen the Securities and Exchange Commission put its lawsuit against crypto exchange Binance on hold and move to drop a lawsuit against Coinbase. Trump also issued an executive order to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile. Saylor believes that this pro-crypto stance will be a significant catalyst for Bitcoin's growth.

Saylor's long-term forecast for Bitcoin is based on a 21-year period with a 29% annual rate of return (ARR). He explains, "My long-term forecast is 21 years, 29% ARR (annual rate of return). Right now we're 60% ARR, it will decelerate toward 20% ARR over the next 21 years, and the volatility will decelerate." He also views Bitcoin as a potential hedge against inflation due to its finite supply. He states, "I am bullish long term on the digital coin because of its potential to hedge inflation with its finite supply of 21 million tokens."

Strategy's approach to leveraging capital markets to purchase Bitcoin is unique and aggressive compared to other investment strategies in the cryptocurrency sector. By tapping into the capital markets, Strategy has been able to raise significant funds to buy more Bitcoin, essentially making it a levered play on the coin. This strategy has allowed the company to accumulate a substantial amount of Bitcoin, currently holding about 2% of all bitcoins outstanding, which is approximately 499,226 BTC at an aggregate purchase price of $33.1 billion.

One of the key benefits of this strategy is that it has significantly outperformed Bitcoin itself. The company's stock has seen a surge, along with Bitcoin's price, because Strategy has been able to use the capital markets to access funding that it can use to purchase the crypto. This leveraged approach has allowed Strategy to accumulate more Bitcoin than it could have with its own cash reserves alone.

However, this strategy also comes with potential risks. One of the main risks is the volatility of Bitcoin. As of March 21, 2025, Bitcoin has fallen from a peak of more than $109,000 this year into the low $80,000s. This volatility can impact the value of Strategy's holdings and its ability to meet its financial obligations, such as paying dividends on its preferred stock. For instance, Strategy announced the creation of STRF (Strife), a new perpetual preferred stock offering, available to institutional investors and select non-institutional investors, with cumulative dividends of 10% annually. This high payout could strain the firm’s resources, given that its balance sheet is heavily tilted toward Bitcoin rather than traditional revenue streams.

Another risk is the potential for regulatory changes. The Trump administration has taken a more pro-crypto approach, but future administrations could change their stance, impacting the value of Bitcoin and Strategy's holdings. For example, the Securities and Exchange Commission put its lawsuit against crypto exchange Binance on hold and moved to drop a lawsuit against Coinbase, which could be seen as a positive sign for the sector. However, regulatory changes could also pose risks.

In summary, Strategy's approach to leveraging capital markets to purchase Bitcoin has allowed it to accumulate a significant amount of the cryptocurrency and outperform Bitcoin itself. However, this strategy also comes with potential risks, including the volatility of Bitcoin and the potential for regulatory changes.

While Saylor's prediction of a 15,810% increase in Bitcoin's value may seem ambitious, his track record in growing Strategy's BTC reserves—and the relative simplicity of its balance sheet compared to LTCM—offers a substantial cushion. David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc, argued that Saylor’s personal commitment to Bitcoin should not be discounted: “Saylor literally has more skin in the game than anyone alive… If you don’t like the stock, don’t buy it, simple.” He referred to critics as “ungrateful,” underscoring how Saylor’s public advocacy and corporate purchases have brought mainstream attention—and considerable inflows—to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin analyst Dylan LeClair also dismissed the LTCM comparison, calling it “literally nothing like LTCM” and implying that Strategy’s BTC-backed balance sheet does not pose the same systemic risk as a heavily leveraged hedge fund dealing in derivatives. Preston Pysh, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network, offered a more nuanced take. While he expressed reservations about the new issuance—questioning why Strategy didn’t utilize “the previous preferred issuance which has an 8% dividend yield and optionality for payments in common or cash”—he viewed direct parallels to LTCM as “over the top laughable.” Pysh floated rough numbers suggesting that even if Bitcoin were to tumble 70% from its current levels, Strategy could theoretically maintain dividend and coupon payments for more than a decade. He wrote: “If the price of Bitcoin went down 70% from here, he still has 12 billion USD worth of Bitcoin on the balance sheet and 115M in annual CASH payments (dividends and coupons combined) that need to be paid. That’s approximately 12 years worth of payment inventory on the balance sheet even with a 70% reduction in BTC’s value. Now this math is extremely rough and I’ve put about 2 minutes worth of effort into debunking this, so take it for what it’s worth, but I think your claim is hyperbolic.”



In conclusion, while Saylor's prediction of a 15,810% increase in Bitcoin's value may seem ambitious, his track record and the factors he cites make a compelling case for Bitcoin's long-term potential. However, investors should be aware of the risks and volatility associated with Bitcoin and consider their own risk tolerance before investing.