Is Bitcoin's 'Crypto Spring' Now Here? A Strategic Case for Positioning Before the 2024 Halving

The Bitcoin market cycle has long been a focal point for investors seeking to time entry and exit points. Morgan Stanley's four-season model-spring (accumulation), summer (retail euphoria), autumn (institutional profit-taking), and winter (bear market)-provides a framework to contextualize Bitcoin's trajectory. As of November 2025, the market is in the "autumn phase," with strategists like Denny Galindo advising investors to "harvest gains" and brace for a potential winter, according to LookOnChain. However, this autumn phase is not the end of the story-it is the aftermath of a strategic positioning period that began in the "spring" of 2023-2024, ahead of the April 2024 halving. This article argues that understanding the interplay between market cycles, historical recovery patterns, and institutional adoption timing offers a compelling case for positioning before halving events, using the 2024 halving as a case study.

The Four-Season Model and the 2024 Halving Catalyst

LookOnChain's analysis of Morgan Stanley's model describes autumn as a consolidation phase, where retail and institutional investors lock in profits after a summer of speculative fervor. Yet this phase is preceded by a critical "spring" period, characterized by cautious accumulation and macroeconomic alignment. The 2024 halving, which reduced Bitcoin's block reward by 50% in April, acted as a catalyst for this cycle, according to CCN. Historically, halvings have been followed by parabolic rallies, but the 2024 event occurred in a uniquely matured market. Unlike the 2016 and 2020 halvings, which were preceded by retail-driven volatility, the 2024 halving coincided with institutional adoption, ETF approvals, and a macroeconomic environment shaped by inflation and shifting global tariffs, as CCN notes.

Bitcoin's price behavior before halving events offers instructive patterns. In 2020, a 20% dip just days before the halving was followed by a swift recovery and a 2021 bull run. Similarly, the 2016 halving saw a 14% pre-event dip, though broader market conditions later led to a 27% drawdown, as NewHedge reports. These variations highlight that while pre-halving corrections are common, the post-halving phase often depends on institutional participation. The 2024 halving, for instance, was preceded by aggressive institutional buying, with companies like MicroStrategy and Genius Group accumulating Bitcoin at scale, as Blockzeit and Bitcoin News report.

Institutional Adoption: A New Macro Asset Class

The 2024 halving marked a turning point in institutional adoption. Companies like MicroStrategy, which purchased 2,137 BTC at an average price of $97,837 in late December 2023, according to Blockzeit, and Genius Group, which allocated $10 million to Bitcoin, signaled a shift in corporate strategy. These purchases were not speculative-they were strategic, treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset akin to gold. This trend was amplified by the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, which institutionalized access to the asset and legitimized it as a macroeconomic hedge, as CCN notes.

The timing of these purchases is critical. Institutional buyers often act ahead of halving events, recognizing the supply shock and potential price appreciation. For example, Genius Group's Bitcoin-first strategy, which allocated 90% of its reserves to Bitcoin, was executed months before the 2024 halving, according to Bitcoin News. This proactive positioning reflects a broader trend: institutions are now viewing Bitcoin through a cyclical lens, aligning their strategies with the four-season model.

Strategic Entry Points and the "Crypto Spring" Thesis

Positioning before a halving requires identifying the "spring" phase, where fundamentals align for accumulation. The 2024 halving's spring phase was defined by three factors:
1. Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Inflationary pressures and the search for hedges drove institutional demand.
2. Regulatory Clarity: ETF approvals and evolving regulations reduced friction for institutional entry.
3. Historical Precedent: Past halving recoveries created a narrative of inevitability, attracting both retail and institutional buyers.

For investors, the key is to recognize when these factors converge. The 2024 halving's spring phase began in early 2023, as Bitcoin's price bottomed and institutional purchases accelerated. By April 2024, the market had entered a summer phase of euphoria, with ETF inflows and retail speculation driving prices higher. The autumn phase, now in 2025, reflects a natural correction-yet it also underscores the importance of timing.

Conclusion: A Legitimized Asset Class

Bitcoin's journey from niche asset to macroeconomic staple is now irreversible. The 2024 halving, framed by Morgan Stanley's four-season model and institutional adoption, demonstrates how cyclical positioning can yield outsized returns. While the autumn phase demands caution, it also validates the strategic case for entering during spring phases. As the market matures, investors must treat Bitcoin not as a speculative gamble but as a cyclical asset with predictable rhythms.