Bitcoin's Crossroads: Technical and On-Chain Signals Point to Potential Reversal in November 2025

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has painted a complex picture of bearish momentum and emerging signs of exhaustion, sparking debates among traders and analysts about the likelihood of a reversal. With the cryptocurrency trading near $90,400, the market is at a critical juncture, where technical indicators, Fibonacci retracement levels, and on-chain metrics are converging to signal both caution and potential catalysts for a rebound.

Technical Indicators: Bearish Momentum and Oversold Conditions

Bitcoin's recent decline has pushed its price below key moving averages, including the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), reinforcing a downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 30.38, hovering just above oversold territory, which suggests that downward momentum may be losing steam. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line with a negative histogram, indicating bearish momentum is waning rather than intensifying.

However, the RSI's proximity to oversold levels raises the possibility of a short-term rebound. If the indicator breaks below 30 and remains there, it could signal a transition to a more extended downtrend. Conversely, a positive MACD crossover-where the MACD line crosses above the signal line-could confirm a reversal or relief rally, particularly if accompanied by increased trading volume.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Price Levels

Bitcoin's price has found support at the lower end of a rising price channel, currently near $90,400, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,100 acting as a critical threshold for a potential reversal. A successful reclaiming of this level could signal a breakout from the "Reload Zone," while failure to do so might push the price toward the 61.8% retracement at $108,900 or even the upper end of the reload zone at $116,527 according to market analysis.

On the downside, the daily pivot level at $87,067 and immediate support at $85,615 are key watchpoints. A clean break below $85,615 could trigger a retest of the lower Bollinger Band near $81,000. Meanwhile, a strong move above $88,019 resistance might spark short-covering rallies toward the 20-day EMA.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation Amid Volatility

On-chain data provides mixed signals. The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric suggests a potential correction to as low as $45,880, historically aligning with major cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022. This probabilistic indicator highlights capitulation zones rather than exact price targets, underscoring the risk of further downside.

Meanwhile, accumulation patterns are gaining attention. Long-term holders (LTHs) have stepped in during periods of weakness, including the October 2025 liquidation event, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $524 million in net inflows on a single day, reflecting sustained institutional interest. Exchange inflow data also points to ongoing profit-taking, particularly on platforms like Binance, which has seen its highest BTC inflows since March 2025.

Elliott Wave and Macro Considerations

Elliott Wave analysis places Bitcoin in Wave 4 of an impulse cycle, with potential corrections targeting the $80,000–$69,000 zone. If this level holds, Wave 5 could push the price toward $147,000–$213,000. However, this scenario is contingent on defending the $80K–$69K range.

Macroeconomic factors remain a wildcard. Q4 2025 has historically been a weak period for Bitcoin, with a -20.44% return-the second-worst quarterly result since 2018-driven by forced liquidations, a death cross, and hawkish Federal Reserve signals. Yet, historical patterns suggest recovery potential in subsequent quarters if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance

Bitcoin's path forward hinges on a delicate balance between bearish exhaustion and institutional accumulation. While technical indicators and Fibonacci levels highlight risks of further declines, on-chain metrics and ETF inflows suggest resilience. Traders should closely monitor the RSI's behavior near oversold levels, the MACD's potential crossover, and institutional buying activity. For investors, a strategic approach-balancing short-term caution with long-term positioning-may be prudent as the market navigates this pivotal phase.