Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Can $110,000 Reclaim Bullish Momentum?

Bitcoin's price action in Q4 2025 has painted a complex picture: technically bearish but macroeconomically poised for a potential breakout. With the price hovering at $104,535.34, just below the 20-day EMA of $110,249.94, the cryptocurrency faces a critical juncture. The question now is whether $110,000-a level that has historically acted as a psychological and technical inflection point-can be reclaimed to rekindle bullish momentum.

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Setup with Short-Term Hope

Bitcoin's technical profile in late 2025 is dominated by bearish signals. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 20/50/200-day EMAs, with RSI at 36.18 and MACD at -1,599.86, both underscoring weak momentum, according to a Cryptonomist analysis. The asset is also trading near the lower Bollinger Band at $104,537.33, a zone typically associated with oversold conditions and compressed volatility, per the same analysis. Key support levels include the daily S1 at $102,993.89, while resistance is clustered around the pivot at $105,146.45 and the 20-day EMA at $110,249.94, as noted in the analysis.

However, shorter-term timeframes offer a glimmer of optimism. On the 15-minute chart, RSI has rebounded to 49.07, and the MACD histogram shows a positive divergence, hinting at a potential short-term bounce, according to the analysis. This suggests that while the broader trend remains bearish, traders might find opportunities to capitalize on intraday volatility. The Fear & Greed Index, currently at 21 (Extreme Fear), further amplifies the risk of sharp mean reversion if buyers step in, per the analysis.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Institutional Adoption and Policy Shifts

While technical indicators tell a cautionary tale, macroeconomic factors are increasingly bullish. Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy has publicly predicted Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by late 2025, citing growing institutional adoption and the development of risk-management tools that reduce volatility, according to a Coinotag report. This forecast is supported by major U.S. banks like J.P. Morgan and Citi, which are preparing to offer Bitcoin custody and credit lines, signaling broader acceptance, per the Coinotag report.

Inflation trends also play a role. U.S. inflation cooled to 0.3% in September 2025, below expectations, which has bolstered risk assets like Bitcoin alongside equities, according to the Coinotag report. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy's aggressive accumulation-now holding over 641,692 BTC-reflects a long-term bet on Bitcoin as a store of value, per the Coinotag report.

The most disruptive macroeconomic catalyst, however, is the proposed "BITCOIN Act" by Senator Cynthia Lummis. The bill aims to purchase 1 million bitcoins using the Federal Reserve's gold reserves, a move that could inject $90 billion into the market, according to a Coinotag report. While skeptics question the Fed's ability to execute such a volatile purchase, the mere possibility has already sparked speculative fervor, per the Coinotag report.

Global Economic Shifts: Mixed Signals from Emerging Markets

The ECB's decision to maintain interest rates at 2.00% in November 2025 underscores a neutral stance, with inflation projected to average 2.1% in 2025 and ease to 1.7% in 2026, per the ECB press release. This dovish outlook, combined with the ECB's readiness to deploy tools like the Transmission Protection Instrument, suggests a stable macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin.

Emerging markets, however, present a mixed picture. Tyson Foods' chicken segment has driven profits amid inflationary pressures, while its beef segment struggles with tight cattle supplies, per the ECB press release. Similarly, Sonos Inc. faces margin pressures from tariffs, highlighting how trade dynamics can indirectly influence Bitcoin demand as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, per the ECB press release.

The Crossroads: Can $110,000 Be Reclaimed?

Bitcoin's path to $110,000 hinges on two factors: a breakout above the 20-day EMA and a surge in macroeconomic confidence. Technically, a sustained close above $105,146.45 (the daily pivot) would invalidate the bearish bias and target the 20-day EMA as the next hurdle, according to the Cryptonomist analysis. Macro-wise, the BITCOIN Act and institutional adoption could provide the necessary liquidity to push the price higher.

Yet, the current Fear & Greed Index at 21 suggests that any rally might be met with selling pressure from panic-driven short-term traders, per the Cryptonomist analysis. This creates a paradox: Bitcoin needs a strong institutional-driven move to break through $110,000, but the market's extreme fear could amplify volatility and create false breakouts.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Game of Patience

Bitcoin is at a crossroads. The technical indicators are bearish, but macroeconomic tailwinds-particularly institutional adoption and policy experiments like the BITCOIN Act-could tip the scales. For $110,000 to reclaim bullish momentum, buyers must first defend the $104,500 support level and then capitalize on short-term rebounds to test the 20-day EMA.

Investors should monitor two key events: the outcome of the BITCOIN Act in Congress and MicroStrategy's next Bitcoin purchase. If either catalyzes a surge in demand, Bitcoin could see a rapid retest of $110,000. But until then, the market remains a high-stakes game of patience and precision.