Bitcoin Needs To Cross These Checkpoints For A New ATH In 2026

Cryptocurrencies are facing key hurdles before they can reach a new all-time high in 2026, according to Matt Hougan of Bitwise. The first major checkpoint is the passage of the CLARITY Act, which is expected to provide much-needed regulatory clarity for the crypto industry in the United States. The act is anticipated to establish a comprehensive framework for crypto market structure.

The second checkpoint involves the stability of the broader equity market. While crypto is not highly correlated with stocks, a sharp decline in the S&P 500 could negatively impact all risk assets, including digital assets. This is particularly relevant as the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and potential policy pauses.

Bitcoin has already seen early gains in 2026, with the total crypto market capitalization reaching a seven-week high. However, the market is still below the record high of $126,223 reached in October 2025. Analysts remain cautious but optimistic, noting that if the three major checkpoints are met, the early momentum in 2026 could have significant legs.

Why Did This Happen?

The CLARITY Act is a central focus for the crypto industry, with many expecting it to provide a strong regulatory foundation. The act is currently scheduled for a markup in the Senate, with the final vote expected to follow. If passed, the legislation will enshrine key principles into law, potentially unlocking institutional demand and pension fund allocations.

The act is still under debate, and there are concerns about how it will be implemented. Some industry participants have raised doubts about whether the bill can pass without significant changes. Democratic lawmakers are pushing for additional provisions, including requirements for DeFi platforms and sanctions enforcement. These discussions are expected to continue as the bill moves through the legislative process.

How Did Markets Respond?

The crypto market has responded positively to recent developments, with Bitcoin trading at $89,276 as of January 8, 2026. The market has shown signs of recovery following the October 2025 crash, which wiped out $19 billion in futures positions. Investors appear to have moved past this event, contributing to the recent rally.

Analysts are also considering the potential impact of geopolitical events on crypto markets. For example, the U.S. military action in Venezuela has led to speculation that the U.S. may seize control of Venezuela's reported crypto holdings, which could create a supply shock and further strengthen the bull case for Bitcoin.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Looking ahead, the market is closely watching for three key developments: the passage of the CLARITY Act, the stability of the equity market, and continued institutional adoption. If these conditions are met, the market could see a significant rally toward new all-time highs.

Bitcoin price forecasts for 2026 vary, but many analysts are optimistic. Some institutions are projecting Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, with a bull case extending toward $250K. These projections are based on factors such as post-halving supply constraints, ETF inflows, and continued institutional interest.

The timeline for passing the CLARITY Act remains uncertain, with some experts suggesting delays until 2027. This uncertainty has contributed to recent market volatility, with crypto investment products experiencing outflows due to prolonged regulatory uncertainty. However, many industry leaders remain confident that the bill will pass, albeit potentially with delays.

In conclusion, the road to a new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2026 depends on several key factors, including regulatory clarity, equity market stability, and continued institutional demand. While the market has shown resilience, investors should remain cautious as the path forward is not without challenges.