Bitcoin's Critical Turning Point: Can Bulls Reclaim $98K–$100K to Spark a Major Relief Rally?

Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture. After a volatile 2025 marked by record highs, sharp corrections, and regulatory breakthroughs, the cryptocurrency now faces a critical test: can it reclaim the $98K–$100K price range to ignite a sustained bullish rally? The answer hinges on a delicate interplay of technical indicators and macroeconomic catalysts, both of which suggest a high-stakes inflection point for BTC.

Technical Indicators: A Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 reveals a market in flux. On the weekly chart, BTC has formed higher highs and higher lows, with the RSI at 57.78 and the MACD above zero, signaling bullish momentum. However, shorter-term timeframes tell a different story. The daily chart shows Bitcoin trading slightly above the 20-day EMA at $91,634 but below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a potential consolidation phase. The RSI here sits at 49.18, a neutral reading, while the MACD histogram remains positive, suggesting that downward momentum is slowing.

Key resistance levels, particularly $98K and $100K, are critical. A weekly breakout above $98K would confirm a bullish reversal, potentially propelling BTC toward $120K by year-end. Conversely, a breakdown below $90K could trigger a bearish cascade, with $69K–$70K as a worst-case target. On-chain data adds nuance: while over 50,000 BTC moved to exchanges recently (a sign of whale activity), STH-SOPR metrics have dropped toward 0.90, historically signaling capitulation by short-term holders. This duality-whales accumulating while retail investors panic-creates a volatile environment where a small price move could tip the balance.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: ETFs and Fed Policy as Game Changers

The macroeconomic backdrop is equally pivotal. The SEC approved several spot Bitcoin ETFs in November 2025, bypassing delays caused by the government shutdown. These ETFs, including offerings from Canary Capital, Bitwise, and Grayscale, are expected to unlock institutional flows, providing a much-needed liquidity boost. Fidelity and Canary Capital have already filed updated S-1 forms for additional funds, which could launch as early as November 13.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's December 2025 rate cut-its third consecutive 25-basis-point reduction-briefly lifted retail optimism for Bitcoin. While the market quickly reversed course, the broader trend of lower interest rates remains favorable for risk assets. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and could spur renewed institutional buying. Analysts caution, however, that the Fed's forward guidance on future rate cuts will remain a wildcard, influencing whether Bitcoin stabilizes or faces further volatility.

Key Levels to Watch: A Battle for $98K–$100K

The $98K–$100K range is more than a technical level-it's a psychological battleground. A successful retest of the descending trendline and a breakout above $93.758 could signal a bullish continuation, but confirmation through volume and closing above these levels is essential. Recent on-chain activity suggests buyers are accumulating in this zone, absorbing capitulation flows as sellers exhaust their positions. However, a bear flag pattern on the daily chart warns of potential downside risk, with $67K as a possible target if $90K support breaks.

For bulls, the path forward is clear but precarious. A sustained move above $105K could reignite momentum toward $110K–$112K, while a failure to reclaim $100K might deepen the correction. Position sizing and risk management are paramount, given Bitcoin's 5%+ daily swings.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Inflection Point

Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $98K–$100K will determine whether 2025 ends in a bullish resurgence or a prolonged bearish consolidation. Technically, the market is in a fragile equilibrium, with RSI and MACD indicators hinting at potential short-term strength but also warning of a possible bull trap. Macroeconomically, the approval of spot ETFs and the Fed's dovish pivot offer tailwinds, but these catalysts must overcome lingering bearish sentiment and thin liquidity in major crypto assets.

For investors, the coming weeks will be a test of patience and discipline. As one analyst aptly put it, "Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 is a chess match-every move is calculated, and one misstep could cost everything." According to market analysis.