Bitcoin's Critical Resistance Test at $97,600: A Strategic Buying Opportunity Amid Uptrend Momentum

Bitcoin's price action in late December 2025 has been defined by a high-stakes battle at the $97,600 resistance level, a critical juncture that could determine the trajectory of its broader uptrend. While the asset has faced bearish pressure, technical indicators and macroeconomic dynamics suggest that this resistance zone may represent a strategic entry point for investors willing to navigate the volatility.

Technical Analysis: A Crucial Crossroads

Bitcoin's consolidation near $94,000 follows a breakdown below the $96,000 support level, erasing its 2025 gains and signaling a shift in market sentiment. However, the $97,600–$98,500 zone remains a pivotal area for bulls. This level aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), making it a natural focal point for buyers.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is testing the upper boundary of an ascending channel, with a clean breakout above $97,600 potentially unlocking a path toward $100,000. Conversely, a rejection here could trigger a pullback to the $90,000–$91,000 demand zone, which has historically acted as a floor for the asset. The 4-hour timeframe reveals weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI showing bearish divergence and the 100-day moving average crossing below the 200-day line- a "death cross" that historically signals momentum exhaustion.

On-chain data further underscores the significance of this resistance. Two major liquidity zones exist at $97,600 and $93,000, with liquidation risks intensifying if the price breaches either threshold. For now, the market structure remains bullish as long as Bitcoin holds above $90,000, but a breakdown below this level would invalidate the current uptrend.

Macroeconomic Drivers: A Mixed Picture

The December 2025 macroeconomic landscape has been shaped by a complex interplay of factors. The Federal Reserve's rate cut, while historically supportive for risk assets, failed to catalyze a strong Bitcoin rally. Instead, the asset traded sideways around $92,000, challenging its narrative as a reliable inflation hedge. Persistent inflation at 3% and shifting expectations around future rate cuts-markets priced in a 46% chance of one or fewer cuts by March 2026- have added uncertainty.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have driven some safe-haven demand, pushing Bitcoin toward $95,000 in early 2026. However, the asset's behavior increasingly mirrors high-beta equities rather than traditional safe-havens like gold, which surged amid macroeconomic volatility. This divergence highlights Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity and institutional positioning rather than pure macroeconomic fundamentals.

Institutional flows have also played a critical role. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been inconsistent, with large investors buying dips during risk-on sessions but trimming exposure during macro shocks. Meanwhile, leveraged long positions concentrated in the $84,000–$90,000 range pose a risk of cascading liquidations if the price drops further.

Strategic Implications for Investors

The $97,600 resistance level represents a strategic inflection point. A breakout here would validate the bullish case, potentially opening the door to $100,000 and beyond. However, this scenario requires favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as sustained liquidity and a resolution of geopolitical risks. Conversely, a failure to break above $97,600 could lead to a controlled retracement to $90,000–$91,000, where buyers have historically stepped in.

For investors, the key is to balance technical signals with macroeconomic context. If Bitcoin reclaims $97,600 with a surge in volume and a positive reaction to macroeconomic news (e.g., a Fed pivot or reduced geopolitical tensions), this could signal a buying opportunity. However, caution is warranted if macro conditions deteriorate, as Bitcoin's correlation with risk appetite and institutional flows remains strong.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's test of $97,600 is more than a technical milestone-it is a barometer of broader market sentiment. While the asset faces headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty and fragile liquidity, its technical structure remains intact above critical support. For those with a medium-term horizon, a breakout above $97,600 could present a compelling entry point, provided macroeconomic conditions align. As always, risk management remains paramount in this volatile market.