Bitcoin's Critical Resistance Levels and Overvaluation Signals from MVRV Metrics

In November 2025, Bitcoin's on-chain valuation dynamics have become a focal point for investors and analysts, as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio approaches critical resistance levels. This metric, which compares Bitcoin's market value to the total realized value of all coins in circulation, has historically served as a barometer for market sentiment and potential turning points. With the MVRV ratio hovering near the 1.7–1.8 range-a zone corresponding to a price range of approximately $91,800 to $97,200-Bitcoin's trajectory remains under intense scrutiny.

MVRV Ratio and Critical Resistance Levels

The MVRV ratio's proximity to the 1.7–1.8 threshold highlights a key battleground for Bitcoin's price action. This range has historically acted as a strong support zone, where buyers have repeatedly intervened to stabilize the market. However, recent on-chain data reveals a bearish divergence: unrealized profit margins for short-term holders are compressing as prices trend downward, signaling growing buyer fatigue.

Technical indicators corroborate this narrative. The relative strength index (RSI) and commodity channel index (CCI) suggest early signs of stabilization, but the overall momentum remains bearish. Bitcoin's price continues to trade below key moving averages, reinforcing the downward trend. A critical test lies ahead: if Bitcoin can retest and hold within the $91K–$97K range, it may attract renewed buying interest. Conversely, a failure to defend this zone could open the path toward the $92,000 CME gap region, a historically significant support level. A breakout above $105,800, meanwhile, would signal a potential reversal of the bearish trend.

On-Chain Dynamics and Risk-Adjusted Entry Points

Beyond price action, on-chain metrics provide further insight into Bitcoin's valuation dynamics. The 30-day MVRV ratio has fallen to -10%, the lowest level in eight months, indicating that short-term traders are currently experiencing significant losses on average. Historically, such levels of trader pain have often coincided with prime buying opportunities, as they reflect market exhaustion and the likelihood of a reversal.

Bitcoin's ownership structure also reveals telling patterns. Mid-cycle holders-those who last moved their coins 3 to 5 years ago-are offloading positions, while older holders (over 5 years) have retained or increased their holdings according to Glassnode's on-chain analysis. This shift in ownership dynamics mirrors patterns observed during market bottoms, where short-term traders exit and long-term participants accumulate. Additionally, the MVRV ratio, combined with metrics like NUPL, has reached historically oversold levels. These conditions resemble those seen during the Tariff Tantrum in Spring 2025 and the Yen implosion in August 2024, suggesting a potential inflection point for risk-adjusted entry.

Strategic Considerations for Investors

For investors evaluating entry points, the interplay between MVRV metrics and on-chain behavior offers a framework for risk-adjusted decision-making. The current oversold conditions and mid-cycle selling pressure imply that Bitcoin may be approaching a valuation floor. However, prudence is warranted, as the market remains vulnerable to further downside if critical support levels fail.

A strategic approach would involve monitoring Bitcoin's ability to retest the $91K–$97K range while assessing the behavior of mid-term holders. If the price stabilizes within this zone and the MVRV ratio begins to normalize, it could signal a favorable risk-rebalance. Conversely, a breakdown below $92,000 would likely extend the bearish trajectory, necessitating tighter risk management.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's on-chain valuation dynamics in November 2025 underscore a market at a crossroads. The MVRV ratio's proximity to critical resistance levels, coupled with historically oversold conditions and shifting ownership patterns, provides a nuanced picture of potential turning points. While the path forward remains uncertain, investors who integrate on-chain metrics into their analysis may find opportunities to navigate the volatility with a disciplined, risk-adjusted approach.