Bitcoin's Critical Path to Regaining Bullish Momentum: Key Levels and Technical Signals for 2025–2026

Bitcoin's recent volatility around the $100,000 psychological level has sparked intense debate among traders and investors. Is this a healthy correction in a long-term bull cycle, or the early warning of a deeper bearish phase? To answer this, we must dissect technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and market psychology. The data paints a nuanced picture: while selling pressure persists, historical patterns and emerging infrastructure suggest a potential retest of bullish momentum.

Technical Indicators: EMA and MACD Signal Mixed Signals

Bitcoin's price action near $100,000 has been closely tied to its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $101,000 and the 365-day moving average at $102,000. These levels act as gravitational anchors for medium-term trends. As of late October 2025, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 but rebounded to $104,000, forming a bullish "falling wedge" breakout above $110,000, according to a CCN analysis. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has confirmed this with bullish crossovers, suggesting momentum could push toward $120,000 liquidity zones, per the CCN analysis.

However, the absence of RSI and ADX data for this period complicates the analysis. Historically, RSI above 30 during uptrends and ADX above 25 indicate strong directional momentum, per CryptoWaves. Without real-time values, we rely on proxy metrics like the Holder Sentiment Index, which shows growing optimism among long-term holders, according to the CCN analysis. This divergence between technical tools and on-chain sentiment underscores the need for caution.

On-Chain Metrics: Distribution vs. Accumulation

On-chain data reveals a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. Long-term holders (LTHs) have offloaded significant Bitcoin, with supply last active 180–365 days surging-a classic distribution signal, per a FXStreet forecast. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a $661.22 million net outflow in late October, signaling institutional caution, according to the FXStreet forecast.

Yet, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) suggest historical bull cycles often experience 20%–40% drawdowns before resuming upward trends, as noted in a SmallWorldFS analysis. Bitcoin's current SOPR of ~1.15 (profitable sales) and MVRV ratio near 2.5 indicate a mixed bag: while some LTHs are selling, others remain net buyers. The key question is whether this distribution is a bearish trap or a healthy consolidation phase.

Market Psychology: November's Historical Bias and Bitcoin Hyper

Market psychology plays a critical role in Bitcoin's price action. November has historically been one of the asset's strongest months, averaging 41.92% returns, according to the FXStreet forecast. This seasonal bias, combined with the emergence of Bitcoin Hyper-a Layer-2 solution attracting institutional interest-could catalyze a year-end rally, as noted in a Bitpinas report.

However, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has declined, signaling reduced buying pressure, according to the CCN analysis. This divergence between holder optimism and short-term liquidity constraints creates a high-risk, high-reward environment. Investors must watch for confirmation of a sustained breakout above $115,172, which could target $126,234, per the CCN analysis. Conversely, a failure to hold above $106,489 may trigger a retest of $100,000, according to the CCN analysis.

Key Levels and Actionable Strategies

For investors positioning for the next major move, three price levels are critical:
1. $100,000: A psychological and technical support. A sustained break below this level would invalidate the bull case.
2. $115,172: A key resistance where a breakout could confirm a resumption of the bull trend.
3. $106,489: A short-term support level that, if breached, may force Bitcoin into a consolidation phase.

Actionable strategies include:
- Bullish Positioning: Accumulate Bitcoin near $100,000 with tight stop-losses below $98,000.
- Hedging: Use Bitcoin futures to hedge against a potential pullback if the MFI continues to decline.
- Long-Term Hold: Reinvest ETF outflows into Bitcoin Hyper, which could unlock new utility and demand.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

Bitcoin's path to regaining bullish momentum hinges on its ability to hold key support levels while aligning technical and on-chain signals. While the absence of RSI and ADX data introduces uncertainty, the interplay of historical patterns, seasonal strength, and emerging infrastructure suggests a potential retest of $120,000 by year-end. Investors must remain vigilant, balancing optimism with risk management in this high-stakes environment.