Bitcoin's Critical DSS Reversal and Key Support-Level Dynamics

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has painted a complex narrative of bearish capitulation and potential bullish resilience. After a sharp breakdown from $103,177 to $102,203 on November 13, driven by a 138% spike in trading volume above the 24-hour average, the market stabilized within a $101,500–$102,200 consolidation band. This volatility has tested critical support levels, with analysts now debating whether the recent pullback signals a bear market continuation or a setup for a DSS (Double Support Structure) reversal.

DSS Reversal: A Bearish Breakdown or a Setup for a Bounce?

The breakdown below $100,000 in late November marked a pivotal moment. While this move confirmed heightened selling pressure, it also created a scenario where key support levels-such as the Active Realized Price at $89,400 and the True Market Mean Price at $82,400-could act as catalysts for a reversal. Joao Wedson of Alphractal notes that these levels represent the average cost basis of long-term holders, making them critical psychological and structural floors.

A DSS reversal pattern typically requires a retest of broken support levels with bullish confirmation. On November 19, Bitcoin tested $89,183, a level where a close below would invalidate a bullish bottoming tail pattern. However, the price's ability to stabilize near this level-despite a bearish MACD crossover and a monthly red candle-suggests buyer interest may be emerging according to technical analysis.

Key Support Levels: The Battle for $82,400

The $82,400 level, identified by Glassnode's entity-adjusted URPL metric, has become a focal point for bulls. This level represents the average cost basis of long-term holders, and a sustained close above it could trigger a wave of profit-taking from these participants. Below this, the $75,000 and $69,000 zones have historically acted as bounce zones during prior corrections according to market analysis.

Volume analysis further underscores the significance of these levels. On November 13, the 27,579 BTC breakdown volume-138% above the 24-hour average-confirmed a bearish move. However, subsequent volume spikes during rebounds near $88,000 and $85,000 suggest capitulation selling may be waning.

Technical Indicators: Mixed Signals for Traders

Bitcoin's technical indicators present a nuanced picture. The RSI indicator dipped below 30 in mid-November, signaling an oversold condition and hinting at a potential pause in the downtrend. Yet, a bearish MACD crossover confirmed by the monthly red candle suggests prolonged bearish momentum could persist for two to three months.

Volume remains a critical factor. While heavy selling pressure during breakdowns validates bearish moves, rising volume during rebounds-such as the $88,000 bounce-could indicate genuine bullish interest. Analysts like Christopher Lewis emphasize that a break above $111,000 could reignite bullish momentum, but a failure to hold $100,000 may push prices toward $93,000 or $85,000.

Actionable Entry Points: Timing the Reversal

For traders seeking to capitalize on a potential reversal, the $89,183–$82,400 range offers strategic entry points. A close above $89,400 could trigger a short-term rebound toward $93,000, while a sustained break above $82,400 might target $90,000 as a near-term resistance level.

Longer-term, the $75,000–$69,000 zone could serve as a secondary entry point if institutional demand-evidenced by $524 million in net inflows into spot BTC ETFs on November 12-continues to support the market. However, a breakdown below $82,400 would likely test the $45,500 level based on the CVDD model, emphasizing the need for caution.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Juncture for Bitcoin

Bitcoin's November 2025 price action reflects a market at a crossroads. While the bearish MACD crossover and monthly red candle signal caution, the oversold RSI and volume dynamics near key support levels suggest a potential reversal is not out of the question. Traders must closely monitor the $89,400 and $82,400 thresholds, as these levels could determine whether the current correction evolves into a bear market or sets the stage for a new bull phase.

As always, a disciplined approach combining technical analysis with macroeconomic factors like the U.S. Dollar Index will be critical for navigating this volatile juncture.