Bitcoin's Critical $98K Weekly Resistance: A Pivotal Moment for 2026 Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has painted a complex picture of bearish consolidation and institutional intrigue. The $98K resistance level, a psychological and technical fulcrum, has become a battleground for bulls and bears as the market weighs macroeconomic uncertainty against renewed institutional accumulation. For 2026, this level could define whether Bitcoin transitions from a cyclical lull to a sustained bullish phase.

The Bearish Backdrop and Institutional Hesitation

Bitcoin has spent much of late 2025 trading within a $97K–$111.9K range, with a dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K acting as a persistent overhang according to Glassnode data. This zone, where investors have historically exited near breakeven, has repeatedly capped upward momentum. Meanwhile, institutional demand has waned, with ETF flows turning modestly negative in early December. A net outflow of $497.05 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs during the week ending December 20 signaled caution, particularly during the holiday liquidity crunch as reported by MEXC.

Yet, the bearish narrative is not unchallenged. On-chain metrics reveal seller exhaustion near $100K, with over 80% of realized value during this phase coming from coins sold at a loss according to Glassnode. This suggests that while the broader market remains bearish, pockets of accumulation are forming. The STH Realized Profit-Loss Ratio, a key indicator of market sentiment, has fallen below 0.21, reinforcing the idea that short-term support is emerging as Glassnode data shows.

Technical Indicators and Breakout Potential

The $98K level has become a focal point for technical analysts. Bitcoin's recent "bump and run" pattern-where price retests broken resistance levels before turning them into support-has created a bullish setup according to Kitco analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached long-term support zones historically linked to rebounds, while rising trading volume and futures open interest highlight sustained momentum above critical levels as MEXC reports.

A clean breakout above $98K would flip the odds in favor of a bullish continuation. Analysts like Captain Faibik argue that breaking $93K first could trigger a move toward $98K, with volume surges acting as confirmation signals according to MEXC analysis. However, the market faces a make-or-break test at the $98K–$100K zone. A failure here risks a retest of the $86.5K support level, where traders are bracing for a potential consolidation phase as Crypto News reports.

Institutional Flows: A Tale of Two Halves

Institutional dynamics in late 2025 tell a story of mixed signals. While ETF outflows dominated early December, the final week of the year saw a reversal. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $744.4 million in inflows on December 30, ending a five-week outflow streak according to social media posts. This divergence between price action and capital flows suggests that sophisticated investors view current levels as attractive entry points.

Key players like BlackRock and Fidelity added to their Bitcoin holdings during the December 1–7 price dip, with spot ETFs seeing a net inflow of $799 million as NeuralArb reports. MicroStrategy's $500M Bitcoin purchase further underscored institutional confidence according to MEXC. These moves indicate that the $98K level is being treated as a strategic accumulation point, even as broader sentiment remains cautious.

Macro and Regulatory Tailwinds

Bitcoin's trajectory is inextricably tied to macroeconomic conditions. The Federal Reserve's December rate cut introduced uncertainty, with hawkish guidance triggering a selloff that pushed Bitcoin below $98K as NeuralArb reports. However, structural supports like miner production costs and potential resumption of institutional demand could limit further declines according to MEXC analysis.

Regulatory clarity also plays a role. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has shifted market dynamics from traditional ratio models to real trading volumes. This transition reflects growing institutional participation through regulated channels, suggesting that investor confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential remains intact despite short-term volatility.

The Path to 2026

For Bitcoin to break out in 2026, it must first consolidate and form stronger support at $86.5K according to MEXC. A successful retest of this level could reignite bullish momentum, particularly if institutional flows resume their accumulation trend. The $98K–$100K zone will remain a critical test, with volume spikes and ETF inflows serving as key confirmation signals.

If bulls succeed, the path to $116K-and beyond-becomes viable. However, the dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K will require sustained institutional demand to overcome. For now, the market is in a holding pattern, with 2026's outcome hinging on whether Bitcoin can convert its current range-bound struggle into a breakout that reshapes the narrative for the new year.