Bitcoin's Critical $100K Support and Strategic Entry Points Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin's price action has reached a pivotal juncture as it tests the $100,000 support level, a psychological threshold that could determine the trajectory of the ongoing bull market. With on-chain metrics signaling fragility-lower highs on daily charts, a bearish shift in major moving averages, and declining active addresses-the market is grappling with fear-driven liquidations and ETF outflows. Yet, historical patterns and technical indicators suggest this may be a prelude to a strategic entry point for long-term investors.

The $100K Support: A Make-or-Break Moment

The $100,000 level has historically acted as a critical psychological barrier for Bitcoin. A break below this level could trigger a sharp decline toward $92,000, where a CME futures gap exists and historical price action suggests a potential rebound, according to a Coinotag report. On-chain data reinforces this bearish tilt: active Bitcoin addresses have dropped, and more coins are entering circulation, amplifying selling pressure, as noted in that Coinotag piece. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price has fallen beneath its 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), a technical signal often associated with bearish momentum-again highlighted by Coinotag.

However, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. Bitcoin continues to form higher lows on larger timeframes, a hallmark of resilient markets noted in the same Coinotag coverage. Analysts argue that this correction could serve as a reset, allowing institutional demand to re-enter once volatility subsides-particularly with spot Bitcoin ETFs now mainstream, a point also covered by Coinotag.

ETF Outflows and Fear-Driven Sentiment

Recent market dynamics have been exacerbated by significant ETF outflows. On November 4, 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $578 million, with Fidelity's FBTC alone losing $356.6 million, according to The Block. Ethereum ETFs also saw $219 million in outflows, reflecting broader institutional caution, as The Block reported. These redemptions pushed the crypto fear and greed index to 21, entering "extreme fear" territory, per The Block's coverage.

The outflows are tied to macroeconomic uncertainty, including a hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ongoing government shutdown, details laid out by The Block. Yet, some analysts view these developments as a classic case of retail capitulation. As Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan notes, such periods often precede significant rebounds, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $125,000–$150,000 by year-end 2025, according to a Coingape analysis.

Technical Indicators and Historical Precedents

Historical data reveals that fear-driven corrections often create buying opportunities. For instance, the Stochastic Oscillator has historically signaled bearish momentum when exiting overbought zones, with 92% of such cases leading to further declines within a month, according to a Tickeron analysis. Conversely, a bearish MACD crossover-when the MACD line falls below the signal line-has historically aligned with downward trends, as seen in October 2025 when Bitcoin traded below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs, per a CryptoRobotics analysis.

However, these indicators also highlight potential rebounds. A bullish MACD crossover or a Stochastic Oscillator entering oversold territory could signal a reversal. For example, during the 2020 bear market, Bitcoin's price rebounded after prolonged oversold conditions, mirroring patterns observed in late 2025, as discussed in a Gate article.

Strategic Entry Points: Balancing Risk and Reward

For investors, the current environment presents a nuanced opportunity. While short-term volatility persists, the underlying bullish structure-evidenced by Bitcoin's higher lows on larger timeframes-suggests a potential floor for accumulation, as Coinotag observed. Key entry points could emerge if Bitcoin stabilizes above $100K, supported by a bullish MACD crossover or a rebound in ETF inflows.

Institutional buying patterns also offer clues. Despite recent outflows, major ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have continued attracting capital during dips, a resilience noted in Coingape's coverage. This resilience indicates that long-term investors remain active, even amid retail-driven selling.

Conclusion: A Calculated Opportunity

Bitcoin's test of the $100K support level is a critical inflection point. While the immediate outlook is bearish, historical precedents and technical indicators suggest this could be a strategic entry point for patient investors. The interplay of fear-driven liquidations, ETF outflows, and institutional resilience creates a dynamic where volatility may precede a significant rebound. As always, risk management remains paramount, but for those aligned with Bitcoin's long-term narrative, the current correction could be a rare opportunity to accumulate at favorable levels.