Bitcoin's Correction End and Strategic Entry Point in Late 2025

The Bitcoin market in late 2025 is at a pivotal inflection point, marked by the convergence of historical price patterns, institutional accumulation, and on-chain liquidity dynamics. As the cryptocurrency stabilizes above $90,000 and contends with critical resistance levels between $95,000 and $100,000, the interplay of these factors suggests a high-conviction long-term investment setup. This analysis synthesizes insights from Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick, MicroStrategy's parity metric (mNAV), and Nansen's liquidity reports to argue that the correction phase is nearing its conclusion, with institutional sentiment and market structure aligning to support a sustained rally.

Historical Patterns and the Case for a Completed Correction

Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick has long emphasized Bitcoin's cyclical nature, noting that corrections often follow predictable patterns over multi-year horizons. According to Kendrick, the recent 10% decline in Bitcoin's price mirrors prior corrections of similar magnitude over the past two years, suggesting that the current downturn has likely reached its bottom. This conclusion is reinforced by the mNAV metric from MicroStrategy, which fell to 0.993 in early November 2025-a near-parity level that historically signals a floor in Bitcoin's valuation.

Kendrick's base case scenario for 2025 now hinges on a year-end rally, driven by the exhaustion of short-term selling pressure and the re-entry of institutional buyers. While he previously projected a $200,000 price target, he has since declined to confirm this, citing the need for further validation from on-chain metrics and macroeconomic catalysts. Nonetheless, the alignment of historical patterns and institutional behavior points to a high probability of a reversal, particularly as liquidity conditions tighten and accumulation activity intensifies.

MicroStrategy's mNAV: A Barometer of Institutional Sentiment

MicroStrategy's mNAV has emerged as a critical barometer for Bitcoin's institutional valuation. The metric, which compares the company's enterprise value to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings, dipped below 1.0 in late 2025, signaling that MicroStrategy's stock was trading at a discount to its BTC portfolio. This development forced the company to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, with CEO Phong Le explicitly stating the need to explore Bitcoin derivatives to maintain dividend distributions and avoid equity dilution.

The mNAV's recent rebound to 1.04x reflects renewed confidence in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, even as the broader market grapples with volatility. MicroStrategy's continued purchases-8,178 BTC added in November 2025-underscore the company's conviction that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to its intrinsic utility as a store of value. This institutional buying pressure, combined with El Salvador's strategic accumulation of 1,098 BTC during the correction, highlights a broader trend of institutional players treating Bitcoin's pullback as a strategic entry point.

Nansen's Liquidity Insights: Stabilization and Late-Cycle Dynamics

Nansen's liquidity analysis provides further evidence that Bitcoin's correction is stabilizing. In late 2025, institutional accumulation has shifted from net selling to modest to strong buying, particularly among mid-sized holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) and smaller whales (100–1,000 BTC). This marks a reversal from earlier in the year, when larger holders-often categorized as "OGs" or long-term participants-dominated the selling narrative.

The stabilization above $90,000 is also supported by on-chain metrics such as the Glassnode Accumulation Trend Score and Bitcoin's realized loss margin, both of which suggest the market is approaching a cyclical bottom. While technical indicators like the SuperTrend and RSI remain bearish in the near term, pointing to potential downside toward $83,000 according to analysis, the broader market structure indicates that institutional buyers are stepping in to absorb selling pressure. This dynamic is further amplified by AI-driven tools, which enable institutions to monitor smart money movements and execute trades with precision.

Strategic Entry Point: The Battle for $95K–$100K

The current price action between $95,000 and $100,000 represents a critical battleground for Bitcoin's next phase. Historically, this range has served as a psychological and technical threshold, with institutional accumulation often accelerating as liquidity becomes more contested. The convergence of MicroStrategy's mNAV stabilization, Nansen's on-chain accumulation signals, and Standard Chartered's historical pattern analysis creates a compelling case for viewing this range as a strategic entry point.

For long-term investors, the risks of missing a potential 40% rebound within three months-suggested by on-chain metrics-outweigh the near-term bearish signals. Moreover, the shift in whale behavior-from heavy selling to neutral or accumulation-indicates that the market's structural balance is tilting toward buyers. This is further reinforced by the fact that Bitcoin's sharp correction has already triggered panic selling, creating a liquidity vacuum that institutional actors are now filling.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's correction in late 2025 is not merely a temporary setback but a structural realignment driven by institutional sentiment, historical patterns, and liquidity dynamics. The stabilization above $90,000, coupled with MicroStrategy's mNAV rebound and Nansen's accumulation insights, provides a robust framework for identifying a high-conviction entry point. While short-term volatility remains a risk, the alignment of these factors suggests that the market is poised for a sustained rally into year-end-and potentially beyond. For investors with a multi-year horizon, the current price action represents an opportunity to position for the next leg of Bitcoin's cycle.