Bitcoin Consolidates Near $104,000, Awaits Breakout

Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,650, attempting to stabilize just below the key $104,000 resistance zone after a brief consolidation phase. The macro trend remains bullish, but recent price action shows tightening within a symmetrical triangle formation on lower time frames, suggesting that a breakout or breakdown may be imminent heading into May 19.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to respect a rising support trendline that connects the early May lows to the current structure. After surging from sub-$100,000 levels earlier this month, the Bitcoin price has faced repeated rejections just under $105,000. The consolidation near $103,300–$103,800 represents a period of indecision following the bullish rally, but the structure remains intact as long as bulls defend $101,500.

Multiple triangle breakouts since April have fueled Bitcoin price spikes, but current candles suggest caution. A bearish divergence is forming between price and RSI, as price hovers near highs while momentum flattens. On the 30-minute chart, RSI has moved up to 62.6, indicating moderate bullish pressure but not yet in overbought territory. This aligns with MACD, which has printed a bullish crossover but with relatively flat histogram bars suggesting a lack of strong follow-through. Together, these indicators imply a cautiously bullish tone for the near term.

Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are beginning to contract around the $103K region, pointing to suppressed Bitcoin price volatility. Historically, such compression precedes significant directional moves. The upper band sits near $104,500 and the lower at $102,200, defining the current volatility envelope.

The answer to why Bitcoin's price is going up today lies in the triangle consolidation breakout observed on the 30-minute chart. Bitcoin recently broke out from a narrowing pattern near $103,200, pushing toward the upper resistance block at $103,800. This move is supported by volume uptick and confirmation from MACD crossover, signaling bulls are attempting to reclaim short-term control. However, without a strong close above $104,500, the Bitcoin price update remains range-bound. Bulls need to decisively flip this level into support to reignite upside momentum toward $105,700 and $107,000.

The daily and weekly charts show that Bitcoin remains well above key support zones. On the 1-day chart, BTC has broken the long-term downtrend resistance and is now consolidating above the $100K psychological level. The weekly Fibonacci retracement from the March correction reveals Bitcoin is holding just under the 0.786 level at $103,970, with the 1.0 extension target sitting at $109,396. Additionally, EMAs continue to align favorably. The 20 EMA (4H) at $103,334 and the 50 EMA at $102,683 are providing dynamic support. The 200 EMA sits far below at $96,599, reaffirming that the long-term Bitcoin price trend remains intact and bullish.

If Bitcoin can sustain a close above $104,000 with increasing volume, it opens the path toward a move to $105,700 and potentially $107,500. On the downside, failure to hold $102,900 could lead to a retest of the $101,500–$101,900 demand zone, where previous breakout structures were formed. Given the mixed short-term indicators and strong macro backdrop, traders should expect a directional move in the next 24 hours—especially as Bollinger Bands tighten and intraday triangle resistance nears.

In summary, Bitcoin's price is currently in a state of consolidation, with bulls aiming for a breakout above $104,000. The macro trend remains bullish, but short-term indicators suggest caution. The next 24 hours will be crucial as Bitcoin approaches key resistance and support levels, with the potential for significant directional moves. The broader trend still favors buyers, with Bitcoin holding above key support zones and EMAs providing dynamic support. However, without a strong close above $104,500, the price remains range-bound, and bulls need to decisively flip this level into support to reignite upside momentum.