Bitcoin Consolidates Between $100,000 and $110,000 Awaiting Macro Catalysts

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a state of consolidation, trading within a narrow range of $100,000 to $110,000. Analysts have highlighted the need for a significant macroeconomic catalyst to break out of this range. The latest report from Bitfinex Alpha noted several factors contributing to this consolidation period, including lighter spot activity, softer taker-buy flow, and profit-taking by wallets that had purchased below $80,000 in April.

The report also cited declines in spot volume and a weaker appetite for futures as indicators that the rally from April 9’s low has stalled. Exchange data showed significant liquidations on both long and short positions, suggesting a reduction in leverage across the market. Open interest in perpetual and dated contracts dropped by 7.2% to 334,000 BTC, indicating forced position cuts and a cleaner derivatives landscape.

Historically, June marks the end of a strong second quarter, with an average return of nearly 27% since 2013. In contrast, the third quarter typically sees tighter ranges and an average return of only 6%. Support levels between $94,000 and $99,000 have been attracting bids, bolstered by the short-term holder’s realized price, which is nearing $98,779. Traders intervened when the spot price dipped to $98,579 on June 22, lifting the price to $108,250 as geopolitical tensions eased.

The current market structure is described as a “waiting game,” where bulls and bears are balanced until fresh demand arrives, likely from exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows during US trading hours. Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst, flagged Federal Reserve policy as the primary variable, noting that the market will likely react positively once the Fed announces rate cuts. He tracks liquidation heat maps and institutional wallet signals to gauge whether large buyers are accumulating or standing aside.

Bitfinex Alpha echoed this view, stating that ETF inflows must accelerate and global liquidity must expand before Bitcoin can clear the upper band of its two-month range. Without deeper cash allocations, spot bids fade near $110,000, and sellers cap the price by trimming their positions. However, the report saw no imminent breakdown as long as key support levels hold and structural positioning remains constructive.