Bitcoin Closes in on $49K Target as Bear Market Continues, Analysts Watch Key Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $75,000 level on February 6, 2026, intensifying bearish sentiment and prompting renewed discussion about potential further declines. Analysts on X and other platforms highlight $74,400 and $49,180 as key support zones.

A bearish crossover between the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMA) has been cited as a sign of extended market weakness, a pattern observed in previous bear cycles. On-chain data is also flashing warnings, with Bitcoin trading below the realized price of long-term holders.

The ETF era introduces a new dynamic, with institutional demand and outflows playing a crucial role in Bitcoin's price behavior. Recent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have raised concerns about ongoing selling pressure. However, inflows on certain days, like Monday, February 3, have temporarily stabilized the market.

Why Did This Happen?

The breakdown of key technical and on-chain indicators has triggered bearish sentiment. The loss of the 21-week EMA is a significant event, historically marking the start of bearish phases.

On-chain metrics such as the realized price of long-term holders are also flashing red flags. When Bitcoin's price remains below these levels for an extended period, it typically signals a shift from a standard correction to a deeper bearish phase.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring key price levels such as $73,000 and $56,000, which could serve as either stabilization points or thresholds for further declines.

The plumbing of the Bitcoin market—mining economics and fee structures—is under scrutiny. Miners are adapting to new business models, such as AI and HPC hosting, which could alter their behavior during price drops.

ETF flows remain a wildcard. If inflows resume and stabilize, the bearish momentum could weaken. However, persistent outflows may prolong the downtrend.

Institutional buying behavior is also being analyzed. Recent corporate purchases by firms like Strategy (MSTR) indicate some dip buying activity, though not at a level sufficient to reverse the bearish trend.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

The current market is operating within a bearish framework. While short-term inflows and rallies have occurred, the long-term trend remains downward.

Investors should watch for signals that could indicate a shift in market sentiment. These include improvements in fee rates, ETF inflow patterns, and hashprice stability.

Historical data suggests that a 50% drawdown from a cycle high is typically not the end of a bear market. Additional declines of 30% to 70% are possible, depending on whether the current cycle follows a softer or harsher historical pattern.

The market remains in a phase of uncertainty, with key levels like $73,000 and $49,000 under observation. The depth and timing of the bottom remain open questions for investors and analysts alike.