Bitcoin Climbs 45% Post-Election, Targets $163,000

Bitcoin (BTC) has been steadily climbing, forming new intraday highs each day this week. This upward trajectory has led analysts to compare the current market conditions to those seen after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when Bitcoin experienced a significant rally. According to the Bitcoin Quantile Model, the cryptocurrency is currently in a "Transition Zone," a critical phase before entering an "Acceleration Phase." This model, which uses quantile regression to map Bitcoin's price phases on a logarithmic scale, suggests that Bitcoin is poised for substantial gains similar to those seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, when it rallied by 45% after surpassing $74,500.

As Bitcoin approaches the $108,000 level, it is on the verge of entering the "Acceleration Phase," which could trigger the next leg of its price discovery. Based on the model, Bitcoin is expected to target price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months. However, some analysts, such as apsk32, believe that a price target above $200,000 is a "reasonable" expectation for 2025, citing Bitcoin's improved position relative to gold and the convergence of their Sharpe ratios.

From a technical standpoint, the recent convergence of the Sharpe ratios for Bitcoin and gold suggests that both assets now offer comparable risk-to-reward profiles to investors. This development has led Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro to recommend a 4:1 gold-to-Bitcoin ratio from an allocation perspective. The current market conditions, characterized by strong trends and high momentum, have historically led to new all-time highs within a short period. However, the lack of sufficient trading volume remains a concern, as it could delay the upward movement of Bitcoin's price.

Crypto researcher Aylo analyzed Bitcoin's historical price action and found that when the cryptocurrency consolidates near its all-time high level during a strong, accelerating trend, it has historically broken out to new all-time highs within days to weeks. However, weaker trends have led to stalls or retraces. Currently, Bitcoin exhibits a strong trend but lacks the necessary trading volume to confirm a breakout. For Bitcoin to break its all-time highs, daily trading volume should exceed the previous 10 days, be at least 1.5 times the 20-day average, and ideally sustain a 3-day increase while the price holds steady or rises.

Despite the lack of retail investor demand, which remains low at just 3.2% over 30 days, Bitcoin's price continues to climb. In comparison, bullish retail demand accounted for approximately 30% in December 2024, even though Bitcoin was well below its current price range. As Bitcoin approaches the $108,000 level, it is on the verge of entering the "Acceleration Phase," which could trigger the next leg of its price discovery. Based on the model, Bitcoin is expected to target price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months. However, some analysts believe that a price target above $200,000 is a "reasonable" expectation for 2025, citing Bitcoin's improved position relative to gold and the convergence of their Sharpe ratios.