Bitcoin Climbs 10% to $109,130 Amid Bullish Signals

Bitcoin has been on a steady climb, with its price recently reaching approximately $109,130, just shy of its previous all-time high. This surge has been driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions, including record highs in US stocks, a weakening dollar, and expansive fiscal policies, which have created an environment conducive to risky assets, including Bitcoin.

However, some analysts are expressing concern that the time for another explosive rally in Bitcoin's current four-year cycle may be running out. Popular analyst TradingShot highlighted the possibility that Bitcoin may not experience another parabolic breakout if the current pattern holds. He explained that Bitcoin is still moving within a long-term “Channel Up” structure and has yet to replicate the exponential moves seen in prior cycles. Since bottoming out in November 2022, Bitcoin has been trading within an ascending channel that closely mirrors a Fibonacci-based trendline dating back to 2013. Historically, Bitcoin has initiated powerful rallies every time it broke above the “Buy Zone” in this structure, triggering parabolic rallies in the 2017 and 2021 cycles. However, Bitcoin has not delivered a similar move during this cycle, prompting concern that the opportunity for such an advance may be running out.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital echoed a similar sentiment, pointing out that if history repeats, the current bull market may only have a few more months of upward momentum. He projects that the market peak could occur around October 2025, roughly 550 days after the most recent halving event in April. This leaves only two to three months potentially left in this bull market. Meanwhile, on-chain indicators suggest a growing foundation for price stability around $100,000. The outflow/inflow ratio implies that this psychological level could become Bitcoin’s new baseline before another major upward push begins.

Despite these concerns, several traders remain confident that further gains are possible. TradingShot pointed out that Bitcoin has turned the top of a former bull flag into a new support zone, which is a strong bullish signal along with the price holding above the 50-day simple moving average. He suggested that if this momentum holds, the breakout could eventually push Bitcoin toward the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $168,500. Fellow trader Jelle agreed, stating that clearing $110,000 would likely set up a path to $130,000. Another analyst, Mags, emphasized that Bitcoin remains structurally strong, trading well above the 50-week moving average and maintaining support above its previous all-time high. “It looks like we’re just consolidating before the next leg up,” Mags said.

In addition to technical analysis, various on-chain signals continue to support a bullish outlook. These include low BTC balances on exchanges, rising institutional interest through spot Bitcoin ETFs, and favorable metrics such as the MVRV ratio and strong long-term holder activity. While time may be limited for another explosive rally in this cycle, the combination of solid technical foundations and persistent market demand suggests that Bitcoin may still have one more surge left before the cycle concludes.

However, there are signs of potential trouble beneath the surface. The $105,000 level is a critical point of interest, coinciding with a zone of high liquidity and the 50-day exponential moving average. This level has been identified as a potential trap for overconfident bulls, who could be liquidated if the price fails to sustain a breakout. Market makers often exploit such scenarios, trapping bulls and then abruptly reversing the trend. This dynamic underscores the need for caution, as the market shows signs of overheating.

The derivatives market is sending mixed signals. While Bitcoin's price continues to climb, funding rates on major exchanges have been declining, indicating growing skepticism among traders. This misalignment could lead to a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to cover their positions if the price breaks above $110,000 with significant momentum. Such a move could temporarily propel Bitcoin far beyond current expectations. The Fear & Greed Index is also sounding the alarm, with investors exhibiting a high level of greed. This exuberance often precedes a short-term top, where the market experiences a shakeout before resuming its upward trajectory. The $105,000 level could serve as this shakeout point, providing a strategic entry for those looking to capitalize on the next leg of the rally.

Analysts have varying opinions on the potential outcomes. Some highlight the favorable macroeconomic conditions that support Bitcoin's rise. Others predict a drop to $90,000 before a significant rally. These differing views reflect the uncertainty and volatility inherent in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is teetering on a critical juncture, as highlighted by a recent post. The chart reveals a rare “triple top” pattern, with the price testing resistance around $110,000 three times. This technical formation, supported by studies, boasts a 70% accuracy rate in predicting significant breakouts or reversals in volatile markets, making it a focal point for traders.

A breakout above $110,000 could propel Bitcoin toward $120,000, aligning with bullish signals from historical parabolic surges seen in 2017-2021. This optimism is fueled by geopolitical uncertainties, challenging stablecoin dominance. Past Exponential Moving Average (EMA) reclaim patterns suggest a 10-20% rally post-dip, reinforcing the breakout scenario. Conversely, a rejection at this level might see Bitcoin slide to $93,000, a key support identified by research. This bearish outlook hinges on market sentiment and macroeconomic pressures, with traders advocating tight stop-losses amid the risk. The current price, hovering near $108,000, places Bitcoin in a make-or-break zone.

As of today, the crypto community is divided. Enthusiasts predict a “WAGMI” (We’re All Gonna Make It) rally, while cautious voices prepare for volatility. With no definitive move yet, traders are watching volume and global news closely. A recent analysis highlights a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, centered on a Golden Cross formed on April 6, 2025, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day, a signal with a 70% historical probability of a 12-month price increase. The post ties Bitcoin’s potential surge to global M2 money supply growth, echoing the 2020-2021 bull run when M2 rose 26% globally, suggesting consolidation is nearing its end. However, the speculative $106,400 “AR Automatic Reaction” target, possibly linked to Arweave (AR) dynamics, lacks robust data support and reflects trader sentiment rather than fundamentals, urging caution amid the market’s current anticipation of an upward move. Will Bitcoin shatter resistance and soar, or will it retreat to safer ground? The answer lies in the hours ahead, making this a pivotal moment for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.