Bitcoin's On-Chain Selling Pressure and Market Bottom Potential: A Deep Dive into Exchange Flows, Whale Behavior, and Critical Support Levels

The Bitcoin market in November 2025 is navigating a complex interplay of on-chain dynamics, with exchange inflows, whale activity, and key support levels offering critical insights into its near-term trajectory. As the price dips below $90,000, erasing earlier gains, the question of whether this marks a temporary correction or a deeper bearish phase looms large. This analysis synthesizes on-chain data to assess selling pressure and the potential for a market bottom.

Exchange Inflows: A Canary in the Coal Mine

Bitcoin's exchange inflows have surged, signaling heightened selling pressure. Binance Exchange Netflow data reveals a sharp increase in BTC reserves, rising from 540,000 to over 582,000 BTC in recent weeks. This influx suggests institutional and retail participants are liquidating positions, likely driven by ETF-related redemptions and profit-taking after a volatile year. Such inflows often precede price declines, as exchanges act as liquidity hubs for sellers. However, the magnitude of this movement also raises questions about whether it reflects capitulation or a strategic redistribution of assets.

Whale Activity: Accumulation Amid Chaos

While exchange inflows paint a bearish narrative, whale behavior tells a more nuanced story. November 2025 has seen a record spike in large transactions, with over 102,000 movements exceeding $100,000 and 29,000 surpassing $1 million. Notably, mid-sized whales (100–1,000 BTC) have absorbed 23% more supply over the past year, while the largest cohorts (10K–100K BTC) have reduced holdings by 11%. This divergence indicates a potential reallocation of power from ultra-wealthy holders to a broader base of investors.

The oldest BTC whales-those holding coins untouched for over five years-remain anchored, suggesting long-term conviction according to analysis. Conversely, mid-cycle traders (active 3–5 years ago) are aggressively selling, a pattern often observed during capitulation phases. A striking example is BitGo's $121 million purchase of 1,300 BTC, underscoring that well-funded entities view current price levels as attractive entry points according to on-chain data. This duality-retail and mid-term sellers versus institutional buyers-hints at a possible inflection point.

Key Support Levels: The On-Chain Gauntlet

Technical analysis identifies several critical thresholds that could dictate Bitcoin's next move. The Active Realized Price at $89,400 and the True Market Mean Price at $82,400 represent structural support levels derived from on-chain metrics according to analysts. These benchmarks have historically acted as floors during prior corrections, and a sustained break below $82,400 could trigger a cascade toward $45,500 per the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model according to market analysis.

Meanwhile, the $95,000–$97,000 range serves as immediate resistance for bulls according to CoinMonks analysis, while the $82K level-validated by Glassnode's entity-adjusted URPL metric-has emerged as a psychological battleground according to insights. Current price action near $85,000 suggests a fragile equilibrium: a rebound above $95K could reignite bullish momentum, but a breakdown below $75K risks a retest of 2023's bear market lows ($30K–$35K) according to market analysis.

Synthesis: A Market at a Crossroads

The confluence of these factors paints a market in flux. Exchange inflows and ETF selling pressure indicate short-term bearishness, yet whale accumulation and institutional buying suggest underlying strength. The $82K support level is pivotal; if it holds, it could catalyze a rebound toward $100K–$115K according to market analysis. Conversely, a failure to defend this level may force a deeper correction.

For investors, the path forward hinges on monitoring two variables:
1. Whale Behavior: A shift from selling to accumulation among mid-cycle traders could signal capitulation.
2. Support Breakouts: A decisive close above $95K or below $82K will likely define the next phase.

In the absence of macroeconomic catalysts, on-chain data remains the most reliable barometer. While the CVDD model warns of a worst-case $45K scenario, the current divergence between retail and institutional sentiment implies a potential bottom is closer than it appears.