Bitcoin On-Chain Demand Still Weak, Stronger Demand Needed to Return to $100K

Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. attracted $471 million in fresh capital during the opening trading session of 2026, according to Farside Investors data. This marked a reversal from December 31, when the ETF market lost $348 million. The inflow was led by BlackRock's IBIT with $287 million, followed by major gains from Fidelity and Bitwise funds according to the same report.

The rebound in ETF demand coincided with a broader crypto market recovery. Bitcoin climbed above $90,000 while Ethereum surged past $3,100. The total crypto market capitalization rose approximately 2% to $3.1 trillion in the past 24 hours, per CoinGecko.

On January 6, 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single-day inflow since early October, with a total of $697.2 million. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone accounted for more than half of this inflow, adding $372.5 million. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund also saw significant inflows.

Why Did This Happen?

The inflows reflect renewed institutional and retail appetite for Bitcoin after a year-end selling spree driven by tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETFs have been the largest beneficiaries of this renewed demand.

Bitcoin's price climbed above $94,000 on January 6, 2026, following a dip below $90,000 in December according to market analysis. This rebound was supported by the inflow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs and a broader shift in institutional investor behavior.

How Did Markets Respond?

The crypto market capitalization rebounded to around $3.2 trillion, driven by Bitcoin's performance and gains in Ethereum and major altcoins. The inflow of fresh capital and global geopolitical tensions have strengthened Bitcoin's safe-haven appeal.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust continues to lead in ETF inflows, with its share of the inflow exceeding $372.5 million on January 6. This performance positions BlackRock as a major player in the Bitcoin ETF space, with its product attracting a significant portion of the market's inflows.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are monitoring whether the current inflows into Bitcoin ETFs can sustain the upward trend and push Bitcoin toward the $100,000 level. The relative strength index on Bitcoin's daily chart is at 64, indicating bullish momentum.

Morgan Stanley's entry into the crypto ETF market with its Bitcoin and Solana Trusts adds to the competitive landscape. The bank's move signals growing institutional confidence in regulated crypto products and highlights the potential for increased fee revenue from digital asset investments.

The on-chain demand for Bitcoin remains weak, despite the recent inflows into ETFs. Analysts argue that stronger on-chain activity is needed for Bitcoin to reclaim its previous all-time highs.

Regulatory developments also remain under scrutiny. The Responsible Financial Innovation Act is expected to be marked up in the Senate Banking Committee in the second week of January, potentially reshaping the U.S. crypto market structure.

Bitcoin's price remains above $93,000 at the time of writing, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 serving as a key resistance point. A sustained close above this level could signal further gains toward $100,000.

Investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with users on Myriad estimating a 74% chance that Bitcoin will close the gap to $100,000 rather than dropping back to $69,000.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's potential expansion of regulatory authority over digital assets could impact the market structure and investor behavior in the coming months.

Bitcoin ETFs now custody $122.86 billion worth of BTC, according to CoinGlass. This figure reflects the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin as an asset class.

Market participants are also watching whether the recent inflows into ETFs will lead to a broader shift in how Bitcoin is used and perceived by institutional investors and traditional financial players.