Bitcoin's On-Chain Confidence Climbs as Price Nears $120,000

Bitcoin's on-chain confidence has been on the rise, sparking discussions about whether the current bull market is approaching its conclusion. According to research by Alphractal, the "On-chain Confidence" metric, which aggregates key data points such as the RHODL Ratio, Puell Multiple, MVRV, CVDD, RUPL/NUPL, and Realized Price, is once again climbing. This metric provides a normalized visualization of overall network sentiment, indicating growing profitability across the network.

While the current confidence levels are comparable to those seen in early 2024 and early 2025, they still fall short of the historical peaks observed during the euphoric surges of 2021 and 2017. If this trend persists and confidence approaches the highs from previous cycles, it could signal that Bitcoin is entering the final phase of its bull market. Analysts warn that this stage might last only a few more months, a pattern seen in earlier boom cycles where price action accelerated dramatically before peaking.

Bitcoin has recently surged to fresh all-time highs near $118,800 after weeks of tight consolidation. This momentum has been driven by strong inflows into spot ETFs and legislative discussions, pushing Bitcoin to near $120,000. Despite the recent rally, Bitcoin seems to be consolidating, with no clear peak established. The market structure supports a bullish continuation, particularly as Bitcoin is entering a phase where long-term holders remain steady.

Analysts and traders are closely monitoring the situation, with some suggesting that Bitcoin may continue its ascent into August due to record low liquid supply indicated by on-chain metrics. This bullish sentiment is further supported by the fact that Bitcoin's market cap has reached $2.37 trillion, with the cryptocurrency trading at $119,298, up 1.51% in the past 24 hours and nearly 10% over the past week.

However, there are concerns about key resistance levels. At $119,298, Bitcoin is approaching a significant resistance point, with some analysts eyeing a potential target of $143,000. The rally follows a 48-hour choppy period, during which Bitcoin surged past $120,000 for the first time, hitting a new all-time high and up 28% year-to-date. This surge has been driven by strong market momentum and fresh capital inflows, with altcoins also surging despite Bitcoin's dominance remaining above 64%.

In conclusion, while Bitcoin's on-chain confidence is climbing and the bull market shows no signs of slowing down, it is important to monitor key resistance levels and market structure. The current bullish sentiment is supported by strong inflows into spot ETFs, legislative discussions, and record low liquid supply. However, it is crucial to remain cautious and prepared for potential market corrections as Bitcoin approaches new all-time highs.