Bitcoin Cash/Yen Market Overview: Volatility, Momentum, and a Critical Pivot

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• BCHJPY opened at 69,793 and closed at 71,672, rallying 2.70% over 24 hours with a high of 72,570.
• Price surged into a volatile 6-hour upward wave before consolidating ahead of the 24-hour mark.
• Volume spiked during the 07:15–07:30 ET window with a 72,570 high but waned afterward.
• RSI hit overbought territory in late trading but failed to break above 70, hinting at resistance.
• A key 70,380 pivot level was retested multiple times and held as a critical support in the morning.

Price Action and Key Levels

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 69,793 on 2025-10-17 and closed at 71,672 the following day, logging a 2.70% gain. The 24-hour candle showed a high of 72,570 and a low of 69,793, with a total traded volume of 94.916 BCH and a notional turnover of 6,655,900 JPY. The price action reveals a complex but decisive upward move from 69,793, peaking just above 72,500, followed by a pullback into consolidation near 71,600.

Support levels to monitor include 70,380 and 69,846, both of which were tested multiple times and held as key pivot levels. Resistance levels currently appear at 72,000 and 72,500, where the price showed signs of exhaustion and failed to break through decisively in the final hours.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging with price action, showing a bullish bias. The 20SMA is currently at 71,300, and the 50SMA is near 71,000. This suggests a short-term bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA crossover appears neutral, with price above the 200SMA but lacking the momentum to break decisively higher.

The MACD remains in positive territory with a recent crossover that may suggest a short-term bullish signal, though the histogram has been flattening. RSI reached 70 during the 07:15–07:30 ET window, signaling overbought conditions. While this could be a pause for consolidation, it may also indicate the market is due for a correction in the near term.

Bollinger Bands have widened in the final hours, suggesting a period of increased volatility. Price has been trading near the upper band, particularly after the 72,570 high, indicating a possible exhaustion of upward momentum.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume spiked sharply between 07:15 and 07:30 ET, coinciding with the high of 72,570, and remained elevated for the next few hours. This indicates a period of increased buying pressure. However, in the following 12 hours, volume dropped off significantly, with many candles showing zero volume, including 07:45–08:00 ET, and again after 09:45 ET.

Notional turnover also surged during the breakout but has not kept pace with price since then. The divergence between volume and price during the consolidation period may suggest some profit-taking or a lack of follow-through buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Swings

On the 15-minute chart, price has retested several key Fibonacci levels. After the initial 69,793–70,380 upswing, the 38.2% retracement at 70,111 and the 61.8% retracement at 69,846 acted as critical support zones. The 61.8% level was particularly pivotal, holding firm before the price resumed its upward trajectory.

In the larger daily context, the retracement from the recent high at 72,570 is now testing the 61.8% level at 71,300–71,400. This area may serve as a key level to watch for a potential pullback or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical indicators suggest that a backtest of a “MACD Golden-Cross” strategy could be relevant here, particularly given the recent bullish crossovers on the 15-minute chart. A Golden-Cross occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, often signaling a buy opportunity. If a signal is generated at this point and held for 24 hours, it would have resulted in a gain in this case. However, overbought RSI levels and flattening MACD suggest caution in interpreting these signals in isolation.

To proceed with the backtest, it would be essential to confirm the exact ticker symbol or exchange for BCH/JPY data. If BCHJPY data is not available, alternative tickers like BCH/USD or BCH/USDT could be used, or a specific exchange like Binance or Bybit may need to be referenced for accurate historical data.