Bitcoin Cash/Yen Market Overview – 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price rose from 78,286 to 81,699 Yen over 24 hours, closing at a strong 81,699.
• High volatility and volume spikes occurred after 23:15 ET-1 and early on 2025-11-11.
• RSI and MACD suggest strong bullish momentum, but overbought conditions may trigger short-term pullbacks.

The Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) pair saw a compelling 24-hour move on the 15-minute chart, opening at 78,286 Yen on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and reaching a high of 82,042 Yen the following day at 01:30 ET. It closed at 79,623 Yen on 2025-11-11 at 08:15 ET. The total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 248.9506 BCH, and the notional turnover was 19,896,008.60 Yen. The pair exhibited a clear bullish bias, with a broad range and multiple bullish candlestick patterns, including engulfing and higher volume confirmation in the final hours.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart suggest two key support levels at 78,533 and 77,645 Yen, both of which held during pullbacks. Resistance levels emerged at 80,562 and 81,573 Yen, with the latter being a recent ceiling. Notable patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern at 23:15 ET-1 (78,558 to 79,588) and a hammer-like candle at 01:15 ET (80,376 to 80,945). These formations suggest continued conviction from bullish traders, particularly in the late hours of the 24-hour period.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a clear bullish tilt, with the 20-period and 50-period lines trending upward and the price above both. The 50-period moving average is at ~79,500 Yen, while the 20-period line is at ~79,800 Yen, both reinforcing the upward bias. On a broader time frame, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period daily lines are all trending upward or flat, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.

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MACD (12,26,9) and RSI (14) indicators on the 15-minute chart show strong bullish momentum. The MACD line crossed above the signal line, and the histogram remains positive. RSI values reached overbought territory (~75) during the peak hours, indicating possible short-term exhaustion. Bollinger Bands show a moderate widening as volatility increased, with price frequently hitting the upper band—especially after 23:15 ET-1 and again after 00:30 ET. The bands currently sit between ~78,500 Yen (lower band) and ~82,200 Yen (upper band).

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Volume and notional turnover were notably higher during the 23:15 ET-1 to 01:30 ET timeframe, with the largest single 15-minute candle occurring at 23:15 ET-1, where 31.0266 BCH traded for a Yen value of ~2.475 million Yen. Volume confirmed price action on the way up, with the highest turnover concentrated in the last 5 hours before the close. Divergence was not observed between price and volume—both moved in tandem, suggesting strong market consensus.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key 15-minute swing from 78,286 to 82,042 Yen show the current close of 79,623 Yen near the 61.8% level. This suggests a potential continuation of the trend or a consolidation phase at this Fibonacci level. On the daily chart, the move from 77,645 to 82,042 is also in bullish territory, with 79,623 Yen being a key psychological level to watch in the next 24 hours.

The market may continue its bullish trajectory for at least the next 4–8 hours, especially if 79,623 Yen holds and volume remains supportive. However, a break of the 61.8% Fibonacci level could trigger a pullback to the 78,500 Yen support level, so caution is advised around that level.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “Bullish Engulfing” candlestick pattern is a well-known reversal signal in technical analysis, typically used to identify potential buy opportunities after a downtrend. In this 24-hour dataset, a clear example of a bullish engulfing candle appeared at 23:15 ET-1, where the price opened at 78,558 Yen and closed at 79,588 Yen, fully engulfing the previous candle’s body and confirming strong buying pressure. If used as a backtest signal for a 5-day holding strategy, this candle would generate a buy signal on that time frame. However, due to the nature of this dataset being 24-hour 15-minute data, a 5-day backtest would require daily OHLC data to be completed accurately. If provided with such daily data, the backtest could be executed to evaluate the viability of this pattern for BCHJPY.

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