Bitcoin Cash/Yen Market Overview for 2025-09-26

• BCHJPY traded in a tight range early, then broke lower with volume surging in the afternoon.
• Key support at ¥80,600 tested as RSI hit oversold levels by early morning.
• Price rebounded sharply after 07:30 ET, testing prior resistance with mixed momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 07:30 ET, signaling increased volatility.
• Turnover increased with price action, confirming strength in recent rally.

BCHJPY opened at ¥83,085 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥81,458 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour period saw a high of ¥83,085 and a low of ¥80,202, with a total volume of 108.03 and notional turnover of approximately ¥8,872,764. The price moved within a defined range with a bearish bias in the early hours before a late rally.

The structure of the day shows two distinct phases: a downtrend between 16:00 and 23:30 ET, and a rally between 00:15 and 07:45 ET. Key support levels were observed at ¥80,600 and ¥80,202, with a strong bounce from the latter. Resistance levels were identified at ¥81,600 and ¥82,000. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after 02:30 ET as price closed above ¥81,300. A doji appeared at 05:15 ET, signaling indecision.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, followed by a bullish crossover after 02:30 ET. The 50-period line acted as a dynamic support during the afternoon decline. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period lines all remained in a bearish alignment, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early hours but turned bullish after 02:30 ET, aligning with the price rebound. RSI dropped into oversold territory around ¥80,600 before bouncing back. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the rally, indicating increased volatility. Price traded near the upper band after 07:30 ET, suggesting a potential overbought condition.

Volume surged during the early decline, particularly after 17:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum. Turnover also spiked during this period. After 02:30 ET, volume remained moderate as the price rebounded, suggesting that the rally was not driven by strong buying pressure. A divergence was observed between price and volume during the late morning rally, indicating potential caution.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 15-minute swing from ¥83,085 to ¥80,202 identified key levels at ¥81,676 (61.8%) and ¥82,444 (38.2%). The price bounced off the 61.8% retracement level around ¥81,600 and tested the 38.2% level briefly after the 07:30 ET rally. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger move aligns with ¥82,000, a level that failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis: The described backtesting strategy involves using a 20-period and 50-period crossover on the 15-minute chart to identify potential entry points. If the 20-period line crosses above the 50-period line, a long signal is triggered, and a stop-loss is placed below the most recent swing low. The 15-minute timeframe used in the data aligns well with this approach, and the observed bullish crossover after 02:30 ET would have generated a buy signal. This could have captured a portion of the rally, though the divergence in volume during the rebound suggests caution.