Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) Market Overview

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• 24-Hour BCHJPY traded lower, closing at 88,394 Yen, down from an open at 89,443 Yen.
• Volatility spiked during Asian hours, with a sharp drop from 89,521 Yen to 88,131 Yen.
• Volume surged during the 23:30–00:30 ET timeframe, with over 10x increased turnover.
• Price tested key Fibonacci levels, with 88,208 Yen acting as a potential near-term floor.
• RSI entered oversold territory, hinting at possible short-term bounce or consolidation.

Opening, Closing, and Key Metrics

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 89,443 Yen on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 88,394 Yen the following day at the same time. The pair reached a high of 89,584 Yen and a low of 88,104 Yen during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 117.474, while notional turnover reflected the heightened activity in the late evening to early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish structure characterized by multiple breakdowns and rejection at key levels. A distinct bearish engulfing pattern was visible during the 23:30–00:30 ET period as the pair fell from 89,528 Yen to 88,285 Yen. A notable doji formed at 09:30 ET near 88,506 Yen, suggesting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces. Support appears to be forming around the 88,208–88,131 Yen range, with resistance hovering near 88,629–88,638 Yen. This range may see renewed action as the pair consolidates following the sharp selloff.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 50-period line well above the 20-period. Price remains below both, indicating a short-term downtrend. For daily analysis, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages are all aligned to the downside, suggesting a continuation of the broader bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram displayed a broad divergence in the bearish direction, particularly from 23:30 ET to 00:15 ET, indicating strong momentum behind the selloff. RSI, after reaching a low of 24 during the 00:15–00:30 ET period, appears to have found a temporary floor in oversold territory. A rebound may be in the cards if buyers step in around key levels, although the overbought condition has not yet fully reversed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the late-night trading session, with the Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the sharp drop in price. Price currently sits near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce or a consolidation phase. A sustained move back above the middle band would be a positive sign for short-term reversal, but given the depth of the decline, caution is warranted.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 23:30–00:45 ET timeframe, with the largest single bar at 23:30 ET showing a volume of 4.8814. This coincided with a sharp decline in price from 88,528 Yen to 88,285 Yen. Turnover also spiked during the same period, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. However, the lack of follow-through buying in the morning suggests that the selloff may not be fully exhausted yet.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 23:30 ET 15-minute swing, the price found support at the 61.8% level around 88,208 Yen. A rebound off this level could test the 78.6% retracement at 88,473 Yen, with a potential for a pullback toward the 50% level at 88,366 Yen. On the daily timeframe, Fibonacci levels from the recent high align with key psychological levels near 88,600–88,800 Yen, which could serve as potential resistance on any rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed above the recent high and a target at the 100% extension. Given the current RSI in oversold territory and price near the Bollinger lower band, a long entry at a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement could also be tested as a counter-trend trade. Both scenarios would benefit from monitoring volume and divergence in the MACD histogram to time entries and exits more precisely.