Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) Market Overview for 2025-09-05

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) surged 6.3% in the last 24 hours, closing near a new high of ¥90,108.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with price swinging over ¥10,000 as bullish momentum remained intact.
• Strong volume clustering occurred during the final 5-hour stretch, confirming a breakout from consolidation.
• RSI reached overbought territory, signaling potential pullback risks ahead.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting heightened uncertainty and divergent market positioning.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at ¥87,494 and closed at ¥89,928, hitting a high of ¥91,520 and a low of ¥87,106. The 24-hour volume was 282.65 BCH, with a notional turnover of ¥25,179,000. The pair showed a clear bullish bias, driven by aggressive buying in the final 8 hours of the period.

Structure & Formations

BCHJPY exhibited a bullish trend with a clear breakout from a consolidation pattern in the ¥87,000–¥88,000 range. A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed at ¥88,200, signaling a reversal of downward pressure. The price found key support at ¥87,300–87,400 multiple times, and resistance emerged at ¥89,000–89,100. A doji formed at ¥88,363, indicating indecision but followed by a strong bullish follow-through. The price appears to be in a phase where it could test ¥92,000 as a new resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is at ¥88,400, while the 50-period MA is at ¥88,600—both below the current price. This suggests a short-term bullish trend. On a daily chart (calculated from 12-hour close), the 50-day moving average is at ¥87,200, and the 200-day MA is at ¥86,500. Price is well above both, reinforcing the medium-term bullish setup. However, if the price fails to hold above the 50-day MA, it may indicate a potential retracement.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined involves a long-bias approach based on bullish engulfing patterns and a 20-period moving average crossover. The strategy opens a long position when the 15-minute candlestick forms a bullish engulfing pattern and the price closes above the 20-period MA. A stop loss is placed below the pattern's low, and a take-profit is set at 2x the engulfing body. Over the last 24 hours, this strategy would have triggered a long entry at ¥88,200, with a stop loss at ¥87,950 and a target of ¥88,450. The strategy’s effectiveness appears to align with the observed price action, showing a potential entry point during a key breakout.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12,26,9) crossed above the signal line in the morning, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram expanded during the final 4 hours of the session, suggesting accelerating buying pressure. RSI, currently at 72, is in overbought territory, indicating a possible near-term correction. However, as long as RSI remains above 50 and MACD remains positive, the bullish trend may continue. A drop below 50 could signal a bearish reversal, but such a move has not occurred yet.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price broke out of consolidation. The price closed at ¥89,928, which is ¥1,228 above the 20-period moving average. This places it in the upper 20% of the bands, indicating a high volatility environment. If the price continues to rise, a retest of the upper band or a contraction in the bands could signal a potential pullback. Conversely, a close below the middle band could signal a reversal in momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked in the final 8 hours of the 24-hour window, with over 190 BCH traded during the breakout from ¥87,400 to ¥89,000. The notional turnover surged from ¥1,500,000 to over ¥9,000,000 in the final 4 hours, confirming the breakout. However, the last two 15-minute candles showed reduced volume at ¥89,928, which may indicate a temporary pause in buying pressure. Divergences between price and volume are not currently evident, but traders should watch for any signs of weakening volume during the next upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the most recent swing high of ¥91,520 and swing low of ¥87,106 provide a key retracement level. The 38.2% retracement is at ¥89,400, and the 61.8% level is at ¥88,320. The price closed near ¥89,928, just above the 38.2% level, indicating that bulls are defending key Fibonacci levels. A pullback to 50% (¥89,313) may offer a short-term entry for buyers, but a break below 61.8% could signal a deeper correction.

BCHJPY may continue its upward trajectory for the next 24 hours if it holds above ¥88,500. However, traders should remain cautious of a pullback due to overbought RSI and high volatility. A close below ¥88,200 would indicate a potential reversal, while a breakout above ¥92,000 could signal a new bullish phase.