Bitcoin Cash's Weekend Slump: A Tactical "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" Setup

The immediate trigger for Bitcoin Cash's more than 5% downside move over the weekend is a classic market reaction: the 10% surge to around $700 that followed its second-ever halving. This sets up a textbook "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. The halving itself, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BCH, was the anticipated catalyst. Once that event passed and the price spiked, profit-taking became a dominant force.

This selling pressure is amplified by the context of Bitcoin Cash's solid performance in 2025, where it delivered a return of more than 30%. That strong run set a high bar for the new year. After such a rally, any pullback is more likely to be taken as a natural profit-taking opportunity rather than a sign of fundamental weakness. The price action suggests traders who bought the halving hype are now cashing out, leaving the token vulnerable to a short-term slump.

The Setup: Technical Levels & Risk/Reward

Bitcoin Cash is trading around $619.23, which places it roughly 12% below its recent post-halving high near $700. This pullback is significant against a backdrop of strong 2025 performance, but the immediate technical picture offers a defined risk/reward setup.

The key level to watch is a tight support zone at $623. This is the stop-loss price cited by several traders, indicating it's a critical psychological and technical floor. A break below here could signal a deeper correction toward the 52-week low of $251.09, though that seems a distant scenario for now. On the upside, the weekly chart shows a clear target near $720, which aligns with the weekly high and represents a potential retest of the post-halving peak.

Market participation remains active, with a 24-hour trading volume of $839.16 million. This high volume confirms that the price action is driven by real capital flows, not thin liquidity. It also means the market is efficiently digesting the profit-taking and positioning for the next move. For a trader, this creates a clear binary setup: the token is testing a support level with defined downside risk, but the weekly trend and volume suggest the path of least resistance could still be upward if buyers defend the $623 zone.

Trade Plan & Catalysts

The tactical trade hinges on a clear binary setup. The primary risk is that the halving's positive price impact was fully priced in, leading to sustained profit-taking that overwhelms any near-term bullish catalyst. In that scenario, Bitcoin Cash could drift lower toward the 52-week low of $251.09, though that seems unlikely if the weekly trend holds.

The key near-term catalyst is Bitcoin's upcoming halving in April. As the dominant cryptocurrency, Bitcoin's event often provides a broader bullish tailwind for the entire market, including altcoins like Bitcoin Cash. This could act as a tailwind to help the token defend its recent lows and potentially retest the weekly high near $720.

For confirmation, traders must monitor the $623 support level. The condition for a potential reversal is a bounce from this zone with increasing volume, signaling that buyers are stepping in to defend the position. Conversely, a decisive break below $623 with high volume would confirm the bearish setup and likely trigger a move toward the next support levels. The high 24-hour trading volume of $839.16 million means any move at this level will be driven by real capital, making the technicals more reliable.