Bitcoin Cash/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from $516.7 to $492.0, reaching a 24-hour low.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions toward the session close.
• Volatility expanded with a wide 15-minute range of $22.90.
• Volume surged during the midday rally before tapering at the end of the session.

Bitcoin Cash/Tether (BCHUSDT) opened at $503.6 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $492.0 at 12:00 ET the following day. Price hit a high of $524.8 and a low of $486.2. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 28,697.48 BCH, while total turnover amounted to $13,281,118. The pair exhibited a volatile pattern, with a significant break lower in the last 8 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish engulfing pattern after the $516.7 high, followed by a strong rejection at the $510.0–$515.0 area. A 15-minute doji formed near $495.0, suggesting potential exhaustion in the downward move. The $490.0 level acted as a tentative support, as seen in the last few candles.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed lower, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, price remains below the 50DMA and is trending closer to the 100DMA, which currently resides at $502.5. A breakdown below the 200DMA at $499.0 would increase the likelihood of a retest of the $485.0 psychological level.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute RSI fell below 30 in the final hours, indicating oversold territory, though divergence is not yet clear. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning session, confirming bearish momentum. By the session close, the RSI had rebounded to the mid-30s, suggesting short-term stabilisation may be near.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion with a wide range of $22.90 in the last 4-hour period. Price spent the final 8 hours near the lower band, suggesting distribution and weak hands. A pullback into the middle band could offer a short-term reversal opportunity if volume confirms the bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the midday rally with a $516.7 high, but faded sharply in the final 6 hours. Notional turnover was $13,281,118, with the majority ($7,550,000) transacted between $490.0 and $505.0. The final 4 hours saw relatively thin volume despite the sharp decline, indicating limited conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute Fibonacci study on the $490.0 to $524.8 move shows a potential target at the 61.8% level near $502.0. Daily retracement levels suggest a short-term pivot at $499.0 and a longer-term target at $495.0 if the bearish trend persists.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy uses RSI and MACD to identify oversold conditions and bearish divergences. While the data for HOLD.P is unavailable, the same logic can be applied locally using the provided OHLCV data for BCHUSDT. With RSI(14) < 30 and a MACD death cross occurring in the morning, a 5-day holding period would capture the subsequent pullback. Testing from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08 would validate the strategy’s robustness across different volatility regimes.

Price may find short-term support near $490.0 and $495.0, with a potential bounce into the mid-$500s if buyers emerge. However, the breakdown below $490.0 should not be ruled out, especially with thin volume and low conviction. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains high and divergences are yet to fully materialise.