Bitcoin Cash/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price action showed bearish momentum with key resistance tested around $512.
• Volatility remained elevated with expanding Bollinger Bands.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term recovery.

Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSDT) traded with a 24-hour range of $494.10 to $522.00, opening at $513.80 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and closing at $500.60 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 18,371.08 BCH, and notional turnover reached $9,295,799.56. The 24-hour candlestick pattern suggested bearish bias with multiple lower lows and a bearish breakdown in key resistance.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish trendline with key resistance at $512–$513.50 being tested multiple times during the 24-hour period. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed on 2025-11-03 at 19:00 ET, where the candle opened at $516.90 and closed at $515.80 after reaching $518.70. A doji at $515.70 on 2025-11-03 at 19:15 ET signaled indecision. A breakdown below the $510.00 level on 2025-11-03 at 20:30 ET marked the start of a prolonged bearish phase. The final candle on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET closed at $500.60, forming a bearish confirmation with a high of $501.10 and a low of $498.30.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were both bearish, with the price closing below both lines. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA were all aligned bearishly, indicating a long-term downtrend. The price has not shown any meaningful reversal above the 50DMA since early November 2025, reinforcing the bearish structure.

MACD & RSI

MACD was not available for the given ticker symbol due to potential database or symbol mismatch issues. RSI, however, showed oversold territory, hitting a low of 24.6 on 2025-11-04 at 08:15 ET, suggesting a potential bounce in the near term. The RSI divergence, however, did not provide a strong enough signal to confirm a reversal. Momentum remains bearish in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands showed a marked expansion in the last 6 hours, with the price dropping below the 20-period lower band multiple times. The volatility increase suggests increased market uncertainty or a potential short-term bounce. Price action remains near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly on the 2025-11-04 at 05:30 ET with a massive 4,816.42 BCH traded, confirming the breakdown below key support at $508.60. The notional turnover during that period was $2,421,592.60. In contrast, volume dipped below average from 07:00–10:00 ET, indicating a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Price and volume appear to be in alignment during bearish phases but diverge during short-term corrections.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (from $522.00 on 2025-11-03 at 18:00 ET to $494.10 on 2025-11-04 at 08:15 ET), the 38.2% retracement level at $507.00 and the 61.8% retracement at $514.00 were both tested during the 24-hour period. The price failed to hold above 61.8% and fell back below 50%, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, major Fibonacci levels aligned with key moving averages and resistance levels, reinforcing the bearish structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The absence of MACD data complicates the backtest strategy for BCHUSDT. Given the bearish setup and confirmed breakdowns in key resistance levels, a potential strategy could include a short entry on a close below $500.50 with a stop-loss above $504.30 and a target at $490.00. If historical MACD death-cross data can be provided, the backtest could be refined further to include momentum-based entries and exits. Alternatively, using the 20SMA and 50SMA crossover as a proxy for MACD could also align with the bearish signal observed in the 15-minute chart.