Bitcoin Cash Surges 75% in Three Months Driven by Whale Activity

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has emerged as a surprising performer in the cryptocurrency market, experiencing a remarkable 75% surge over the past three months, reaching $526.5 on July 1st. This unexpected rally has been driven by significant movements from large holders and a series of bullish technical indicators, sparking both enthusiasm and questions about the underlying dynamics of this surge.

One of the key drivers behind this rally is the increased activity from large holders, often referred to as whales. On July 4th, there was a notable 122.45% increase in transactions exceeding $100,000, with approximately 957,440 BCH exchanged, valued at around $482 million. This surge in large-scale transactions has been interpreted by analysts as a potential precursor to significant price movements, as similar patterns were observed before previous peaks in February, May, and June.

In addition to whale activity, several technical signals have bolstered the speculative momentum around BCH. A golden cross was detected at the end of June on the BCH hourly chart, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, a historically bullish indicator. Open interest on BCH derivatives also rose by 27.4% in one week, reaching $578 million, while daily trading volume tripled, exceeding 120,000 cryptos exchanged within 24 hours. These factors suggest a renewed speculative appetite for BCH, although they primarily reflect opportunistic behavior rather than a recovery driven by solid fundamentals.

Despite the market's euphoria, on-chain data reveals a decline in real activity on the BCH network. The number of daily active addresses has reached a six-year low, indicating that the current rally is not driven by increased network adoption but rather by speculative dynamics. This disconnect between speculative interest and real usage raises concerns about the sustainability of the current bullish momentum.

Another notable event was the transfer of 10,000 BCH, valued at approximately $5 million, just before a significant movement of 80,000 dormant BTC. Some experts speculate that this transfer may have been a test of a private key or wallet in preparation for the historic operation. However, the Bitcoin Cash Foundation's release of Knuth v0.68.0, a node software update aimed at improving UTXO efficiency, has not been accompanied by notable adoption or institutional integration, further fueling doubts about the network's fundamentals.

Roger Ver, a prominent figure in the BCH community, has continued his efforts to promote the cryptocurrency, but these have not translated into concrete large-scale support. The lack of solid anchoring in the current crypto ecosystem, which is increasingly focused on layer 2 solutions and real applications, poses a risk of a BCH crash. While the technical zone between $478 and $508 could provide support, the weakness of real usage indicators limits prospects for a structural rebound. Developments around technology or community, such as micropayment projects or NFTs, remain marginal at this stage, adding to the uncertainty surrounding BCH's future performance.