Why Bitcoin Bulls Are Shifting Focus to 2026, Not 2025

The Bitcoin market is undergoing a subtle but significant shift in sentiment. While 2025 has been marked by volatility compression and cautious positioning, the focus for bullish investors is increasingly turning to 2026. This pivot is driven by two interlocking forces: options market positioning and Federal Reserve policy dynamics. Traders are structuring their bets for a potential breakout in early 2026, leveraging limited volatility strategies and anticipating liquidity tailwinds from Fed easing. Below, we dissect the data and strategies fueling this shift.

Options Market Positioning: A 2026 Bull Case in the Making

As of November 2025, Bitcoin options open interest reveals a striking imbalance in trader positioning. Call options for Q1 2026 expiries total 104,300 BTC ($9.12 billion), with 84% of these positions above $91,000-a level that would expire worthless if the spot price remains near current levels according to MEXC analysis. Meanwhile, put options for the same period stand at 67,877 BTC ($5.92 billion), with 31% of puts priced at $84,500 or lower, aligning with the current equilibrium zone as reported by MEXC.

This asymmetry reflects a strategic bet: traders are hedging against near-term downside risks while reserving their bullish exposure for 2026. The put/call ratio for December 27 expiries has doubled from 0.35 in October to 0.70, underscoring rising demand for downside protection according to FalconX. However, the December 27 expiry-with $15 billion in open interest and $1 billion in daily volume-has become a focal point. Its strike distribution shows heavy put concentration near $84,000 and growing call interest around $100,000, signaling a market bracing for volatility while positioning for a potential rebound according to Glassnode.

Traders are also deploying calendar spreads to capitalize on volatility differentials. By selling short-term options with high implied volatility and buying longer-term options with lower decay, they profit if Bitcoin remains range-bound until the short-term contracts expire as noted by Weex. For example, if Bitcoin trades below $84,000, bullish calendar spreads (selling short-term puts, buying longer-term calls) allow investors to benefit from a potential rebound in early 2026. Conversely, bearish calendar spreads near $87,000–$88,000 resistance zones hedge against overbought conditions as described by LinkedIn.

Fed Policy: The 2026 Liquidity Catalyst

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 rate cut-priced in at 87% probability for a 25-basis-point reduction-is unlikely to spark a 2025 rally due to its widespread anticipation according to MEXC. However, the broader policy trajectory is shaping 2026 as a pivotal year.

1. Ending Quantitative Tightening (QT): The Fed's decision to halt QT in December 2025 removes a three-year headwind for risk assets. By stabilizing its balance sheet, the Fed has indirectly supported liquidity for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies according to Benzinga. Historical parallels, such as the 2019 QT pause preceding a Bitcoin rally, suggest this shift could create favorable conditions for a 2026 upswing as reported by Benzinga.

2. Dovish Guidance and Leadership Change: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's December press conference and forward guidance will be critical. A dovish tone-particularly if it signals additional rate cuts or even quantitative easing-could inject liquidity into markets and push Bitcoin toward $100,000 according to MEXC. Moreover, the anticipated appointment of Kevin Hassett, a pro-growth economist with crypto-friendly leanings, as the next Fed Chair in early 2026 could further tilt policy toward accommodative measures according to Yahoo Finance.

3. 
   Implied Volatility Compression: Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has dropped from 65% to 49% as of mid-December, reflecting a market that expects limited short-term swings according to CoinDesk. While this weakens the case for a 2025 rally, it also reduces the cost of options strategies for 2026 positioning. Traders are capitalizing on lower volatility to lock in bullish bets at favorable prices.

The 2026 Bull Case: Structural and Strategic Alignment

The convergence of options positioning and Fed policy creates a compelling narrative for 2026. Here's how the pieces align:

• Liquidity Tailwinds: The end of QT and potential 2026 rate cuts could flood markets with liquidity, historically a boon for risk assets like Bitcoin as reported by MEXC.
• Options-Driven Volatility: Calendar spreads and straddles allow traders to profit from both range-bound and breakout scenarios, adapting to the Fed's evolving policy stance as described by LinkedIn.
• Institutional Confidence: MicroStrategy's recent Bitcoin purchases at $90,615 and the broader institutional adoption of regulated crypto products reinforce long-term bullish sentiment according to MEXC.

Critically, the 2026 bull case is not predicated on immediate gains but on structural shifts. As one analyst notes, "The full impact of Fed policy on crypto often lags by months. 2026 is when the cumulative effects of liquidity normalization and accommodative guidance will crystallize" as reported by Benzinga.

Conclusion: 2026 as the New Bull Market Catalyst

Bitcoin bulls are not abandoning 2025 but recalibrating their focus. The options market's emphasis on 2026 expiries, combined with the Fed's pivot toward liquidity support, positions the next year as a potential inflection point. Traders are structuring their bets with limited volatility strategies, while policy watchers await signals from Powell and the Fed's balance sheet. For investors, the message is clear: 2026 is where the bull case for Bitcoin is being built-not in the shadows of 2025's uncertainty, but in the light of structural change.