Bitcoin Bulls Await Breakout as Fed Rate Cuts and Chart Patterns Align

Bitcoin price continues to hover near the $111,800 mark, with market analysts and traders closely monitoring technical patterns and macroeconomic developments that could trigger a significant breakout. On September 9, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $111,917, posting a 0.7% gain in the last 24 hours. The asset’s 24-hour trading volume reached $25.57 billion, indicating strong liquidity as market participants position for the next move [2]. Meanwhile, a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on the shorter-duration chart, suggesting the potential for a price surge toward $120,000 [1].

The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is a classic technical reversal setup that includes three troughs: a deeper central trough (the head) and two smaller but equal troughs (the shoulders), with a neckline connecting the price recoveries between them. A decisive breakout above this neckline confirms a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, with the potential rally expected to mirror the height of the trough-to-neckline distance. As of now, Bitcoin appears to be forming the right shoulder, with the neckline resistance at $113,378. A move above this level could trigger the bullish breakout, setting the stage for a rally to nearly $120,000 [1].

The recent U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed a weaker-than-expected 22,000 job additions in August, has fueled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This has contributed to a broader shift in market sentiment toward risk-on assets, including Bitcoin. With the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and wage growth slowing, traders are increasingly confident that the Fed will cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025 [2]. Such a policy shift is historically associated with lower borrowing costs, which tend to boost risk appetite and drive demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Institutional investors are also playing a growing role in Bitcoin’s price action. Japanese firm Metaplanet recently added 136 BTC to its holdings, raising its total stake to 20,136 BTC, valued at approximately $2.08 billion [2]. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced $246.42 million in inflows last week, reflecting continued institutional interest. While these figures are lower than those seen in July, when Bitcoin briefly approached $120,000, the trend signals a strong undercurrent of demand that could support a larger breakout if the right macroeconomic and technical conditions align.

Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are showing neutral to bullish momentum, with the RSI near the neutral 50 level and a bullish crossover in the MACD. This suggests that buying pressure is increasing and that Bitcoin could test key resistance levels in the coming weeks. A breakout above $116,000 would clear a major psychological barrier and set the stage for a rally toward all-time highs [2].

However, the path to a bullish continuation is not without risks. A breakdown below $107,300 would invalidate the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, reinforcing a bearish outlook and shifting focus to the 200-day simple moving average support near $101,850 [1]. On the institutional side, a drop below $105,500–$110,000, where significant whale activity has been observed, would likely trigger a more extended correction. Market participants will continue to watch Fed statements, ETF inflows, and key support and resistance levels as Bitcoin enters the final months of 2025.

Source:

[1] BTC Could Surge to $120K With Bullish Head-and-... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/08/btc-looks-to-be-prepping-for-a-surge-to-usd120k-technical-analysis)

[2] Bitcoin Bulls Eye $116K as Fed Rate Cut Bets Trigger... (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-bitcoin-bulls-eye-116k-as-fed-rate-cut-bets-trigger-breakout-hopes)