Bitcoin’s Bullish Trend Faces Four-Year Cycle Constraints, Targets $168,000

Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains bullish, with analysts projecting potential price targets ranging between $130,000 and $168,000. Despite this optimistic view, the current four-year cycle may limit the potential for another major rally. Bitcoin’s price action is currently confined within a Fibonacci-based upward channel, which historically signals the timing and magnitude of major rallies. This channel has been a reliable framework for anticipating Bitcoin’s price trajectory since its November 2022 bottom.

In previous cycles, surpassing the “Buy Zone” within this channel triggered rapid parabolic rallies, as observed in 2017 and 2021. However, this breakout has not yet occurred in the current cycle, raising questions about whether there is sufficient time left for a similar surge before the cycle concludes. The four-year cycle model suggests that Bitcoin’s window for such a rally may be narrowing, potentially limiting the scale of gains achievable within this timeframe.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital points to historical patterns indicating that Bitcoin’s price expansion phase may be nearing its end. Based on the 2020 halving event, the analyst predicts a peak around October 2024, approximately 550 days post-halving. This timeline implies that Bitcoin could have only a few months remaining in its current bull market phase. Such insights underscore the importance of closely monitoring price action and volume trends as the cycle approaches its expected climax.

Onchain metrics reinforce the narrative of a maturing cycle. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio suggests that the $100,000 psychological level may serve as a new support base before Bitcoin embarks on another parabolic leg, potentially in the latter half of 2025. This aligns with broader market expectations that any significant upward movement may be delayed but remains plausible within the medium term.

Despite the cyclical constraints, many traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term upside potential. Bitcoin has consistently tested resistance near the $110,000 level but has yet to decisively break through. The recent price action, including the conversion of a former bull flag top into support and maintaining levels above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), signals sustained bullish momentum. The breakout from this bull flag pattern targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, currently near $168,500, suggesting a significant upside potential if the breakout holds. Complementing this analysis, trader Jelle identifies clear targets at $110,000 and $130,000, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin’s price could continue to climb in the coming months.

Further supporting the bullish case, popular analyst Mags notes that Bitcoin remains well above the 50-week moving average and previous all-time highs, indicating consolidation rather than distribution. This pattern typically precedes a new upward leg in price. Additionally, onchain data reveals strong accumulation by long-term holders, reduced supply on exchanges, and persistent institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury purchases.

Key technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio do not currently exhibit signs of an imminent top, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price structure remains healthy. These factors collectively point to a market environment conducive to further price appreciation, even if the timing and magnitude of the next rally remain uncertain.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend remains firmly in place, supported by robust technical and onchain indicators. However, the constraints imposed by the four-year cycle model suggest that the window for another parabolic rally within this cycle may be limited. Traders and investors should closely monitor key resistance levels and cycle milestones, as these will provide critical signals for Bitcoin’s next major price movement. While short-term volatility persists, the medium-term outlook remains optimistic, with potential price targets extending up to $168,000. Staying informed and agile will be essential for capitalizing on Bitcoin’s evolving market dynamics.