Bitcoin's Bullish Reversal Against Gold: Technical Divergence and Market Rotation Signals Point to 2026 Outperformance

The BTC/GOLD ratio has emerged as a critical barometer for gauging Bitcoin's relative strength against gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. As of December 2025, technical indicators and historical patterns suggest a potential reversal in Bitcoin's favor, driven by bullish RSI divergence and a confluence of market rotation signals. Analysts, including veteran trader Michaël van de Poppe, argue that these dynamics could position Bitcoin to outperform gold in 2026, as capital shifts toward risk-on assets amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Bullish RSI Divergence and Historical Support Levels

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the BTC/GOLD pair has exhibited a textbook bullish divergence, a technical signal often preceding trend reversals. On November 21, 2025, the pair fell to 20, with the RSI hitting 21.30. By December 1, the price dipped further to just below 20, but the RSI rebounded to 26.83, forming a higher low. This pattern repeated on December 26, as the pair hit 19 while the RSI surged to 32.21. Such divergence indicates weakening bearish momentum, as the RSI-a momentum oscillator-fails to confirm the price's lower lows.

Historically, the BTC/GOLD RSI has aligned with Bitcoin's major market bottoms. The weekly RSI for the pair has now collapsed to 29.5, a level last seen during Bitcoin's 2022 market bottom following the FTX collapse and similar to support levels observed in 2015 and 2018. This alignment suggests that Bitcoin may be undervalued relative to gold, which has maintained a strong bull trend with its 14-day RSI in the 60–70 range as reported by analysts. Van de Poppe emphasizes that such divergences often precede Bitcoin's outperformance against gold, as seen in Q4 2022 and Q3 2024.

Market Rotation and Capital Shifts

The BTC/GOLD divergence is not merely a technical anomaly but a reflection of broader capital reallocation. Gold, which closed 2025 with its strongest annual performance in decades, has traditionally thrived during periods of dollar weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. However, Bitcoin's recent underperformance relative to gold-despite its role as a high-beta liquidity trade-highlights shifting investor priorities.

Analysts attribute this rotation to divergent drivers: gold weakens when real yields rise and the dollar strengthens, while Bitcoin benefits from expectations of easier monetary policy and growth-oriented narratives. As real yields stabilize and central banks pivot toward accommodative stances, Bitcoin's appeal as a "risk-on" asset could intensify. This dynamic is further amplified by institutional adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted over $137 billion in assets under management since their 2024 launch. Projections suggest these funds could surpass $180–$220 billion in 2026, driven by expanded distribution channels and regulatory clarity.

Strategic Positioning for 2026

The confluence of technical and fundamental factors presents a compelling case for strategic positioning in Bitcoin. Historically, BTC/GOLD divergences have preceded Bitcoin rallies of 30–50% relative to gold. With the RSI nearing multi-year lows and institutional capital flowing into crypto, investors may want to overweight Bitcoin in 2026, particularly as gold's rally faces headwinds from tightening real yields and dollar strength.

However, caution is warranted. J.P. Morgan predicts gold prices could reach $5,000/oz by year-end 2026. Bitcoin's trajectory will depend on liquidity conditions and regulatory developments, which could either amplify or dampen its risk-on narrative. Diversification across both assets, with a tilt toward Bitcoin in growth-oriented portfolios, may offer a balanced approach.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's potential reversal against gold in 2026 hinges on a critical intersection of technical divergence and macroeconomic shifts. The BTC/GOLD RSI's bullish divergence and alignment with historical support levels signal a possible turning point, while market rotation toward risk-on assets underscores Bitcoin's growing role in institutional portfolios. As the year unfolds, investors who recognize these signals may find themselves well-positioned to capitalize on Bitcoin's outperformance.