Bitcoin's Bullish Pattern Surprises Traders Above 109,000 USD

On July 3, 2025, Peter Brandt, a well-regarded market analyst, shared a surprising analysis on social media that sent ripples through the cryptocurrency world. His examination of a three-day Bitcoin chart revealed what many initially thought to be a bearish sign, known as an inverse bear flag. However, Brandt explained that it was actually indicative of a bullish pattern, with Bitcoin nearing a vital support level.

Brandt’s findings highlight a crucial shift in interpretation, suggesting that the initially bearish-looking bear flag is actually aligning with bullish consolidation. This inversion technique, revealing upward potential, caught many off guard, challenging their assumptions about the current market trend. Bitcoin’s price, as noted by Brandt, was holding firm above 109,000 USD, a crucial support level since mid-June. Historically, such periods of stable, low-volatility prices have often been followed by robust upward movements, indicating the asset is gathering momentum for a future rally.

Should Bitcoin remain above this consolidation zone, traders could expect a swift surge to over 115,000 USD. Next, the 118,000 USD mark stands as another critical target, especially considering its alignment with the Fibonacci extension levels, representing both psychological and technical resistance. Conversely, Brandt warns that a sustained drop below the 109,000 USD level could usher in a genuine downtrend. In this scenario, Bitcoin might test the crucial 100,000 USD mark, which aligns with the lows recorded in June and would be a significant psychological barrier for investors.

Additional factors come into play should Bitcoin decline, with 98,000 USD offering potential support. This price correlates with the 50-day EMA and volume-weighted averages, marking it as a point of interest. If downward pressure builds, leveraging in derivative markets might be compromised, possibly triggering a sharp decline. Nevertheless, experts believe this fall would attract significant institutional interest near 100,000 USD, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook.

Key conclusions from Brandt’s analysis demonstrate that maintaining above 109,000 USD is critical for bullish sentiment. A close above 112,500 USD could reinforce ongoing bullish trends. A downturn below the support might lead to 100,000 USD tests. Brandt’s unconventional interpretation has prompted increased scrutiny and interest from market participants, underlying the dynamic nature of cryptocurrency trading and technical analysis interpretations. His insights serve as a reminder of the complexities involved in chart reading and market predictions.

Bitcoin's recent price movements have left many traders unprepared, as the cryptocurrency's behavior has deviated from the typical summer stagnation that has been observed in recent years. Analyst Cristian Chifoi has highlighted a historical pattern that suggests this summer could be significantly different, potentially catching a complacent market off guard. Chifoi's analysis focuses on Bitcoin seasonality, a recurring cyclical behavior in Bitcoin's price action across the calendar year, particularly in relation to the four-year halving cycles. According to Chifoi, there is a seasonal window from mid-January to mid-March where Bitcoin historically shows explosive movement in one direction, only to reverse course in the subsequent months. This pattern has been observed across multiple years and cycles. For instance, in 2021, Bitcoin rallied from $28,000 to $60,000 between January and March before collapsing back to $28,000 by summer. Conversely, in 2023, Bitcoin dumped in Q1 and reversed upwards during summer.

Chifoi warns that while most traders are anchored to the recent past—recalling three consecutive “boring” summers—this year is historically aligned with a different kind of setup. He compares 2025 to three historical analogues: 2013, 2017, and 2021—all years that followed a halving and saw significant summer rallies. In each of those years, after early-year volatility or corrections, Bitcoin posted dramatic gains from mid-July into early September. In 2017, Bitcoin rallied 160% in that timeframe. In 2021, the move was 77%. The analyst also emphasized that current price action fits his broader fractal thesis. After Bitcoin’s local top at $109K earlier this year and the rejection that followed, the market appears to be chopping sideways—something he predicted back in late 2024. He expects this phase to continue into July 20, potentially ending with a sudden flush to the downside. But this, he argues, would be the setup for the next leg higher.

Chifoi also addressed broader market confluences, notably pointing out similar behavior in the S&P 500, where a corrective move in early July appears to align with his crypto timing model. He expects a pullback in both markets to precede the next upward thrust, targeting a Fibonacci resistance zone that historically acts as a pause point during price discovery. Despite his bullishness, Chifoi made it clear he’s not buying Bitcoin right now. “I already bought below $20K,” he said. “At this point, I’m watching altcoin charts, looking for pullbacks to accumulate.” He expressed frustration at the prevailing narratives circulating among large X accounts, particularly those pushing for rotating altcoins into Bitcoin under the assumption that dominance will rise indefinitely. “This is very stupid,” he said bluntly. “The market is behaving exactly as it should—for the fewest number of people to make money.”

In closing, Chifoi cautioned that those who insist on saying this time is different will likely find themselves on the wrong side of the trade. “Only if this time is different will this not play out. But if you base your strategy on those words, I can guarantee you 99% of the time, you won’t make money.” As the July 20 pivot approaches, Chifoi’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s next move may catch a complacent market off guard. Whether or not history rhymes once more, the veteran analyst has made his stance clear: this is not a summer to sleep through.