Bitcoin's Bullish Outlook Depends on $104,674 Close

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, continues to be a focal point for analysts, traders, and investors as it navigates around historic price levels. According to a recent analysis by popular crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, Bitcoin’s near-term bullish outlook is contingent on achieving a daily close above $104,674. This price point is not merely a psychological barrier but a critical technical juncture, aligning with the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Fibonacci 0.888 retracement level, both of which are indicators of market strength and momentum.

A daily close above $104,674 would signal strong bullish sentiment, indicating that buyers are in control and that Bitcoin could soon chart a path toward new all-time highs. The 21 EMA is often viewed as a dynamic support or resistance level, and when the price trades above this average, it generally signals a bullish trend. The Fibonacci 0.888 retracement level is regarded by many traders as a “last line” of retracement before a continuation of the larger trend, in this case, upward. Egrag Crypto’s analysis suggests that a daily close above this level will cement bullish momentum, increasing the probability that Bitcoin will push past resistance levels and aim for new price discoveries beyond its previous highs.

However, Egrag Crypto also outlines a more cautious scenario: a bearish retest. Should Bitcoin fail to maintain a daily close above $104,674, the analyst points to the Fibonacci 0.618 level as the next critical support zone. This level has historically acted as a sturdy floor during pullbacks, providing the foundation for recovery and fresh rallies. If this support fails to hold, the market could experience a deeper correction, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price down to the Fibonacci 0.5 zone. Such a move would likely trigger a wick, a temporary sharp price dip, that could flush out leveraged positions and shake weaker hands before any subsequent recovery. This scenario underscores the importance of risk management and close monitoring of market reactions at key support levels.

Beyond price action and chart patterns, volume remains the ultimate confirmation signal. Egrag emphasizes that traders must observe whether daily volume aligns with price movements to determine the strength of the breakout or retracement. A breakout to new all-time highs without corresponding volume could indicate a lack of conviction among market participants, raising the risk of a swift reversal. Conversely, a breakout supported by surging volume would provide stronger confirmation that the bullish trend is intact and sustainable.

For now, the crypto community awaits with anticipation. Bitcoin’s position near critical technical levels makes it a magnet for both bullish and bearish speculation. Whether the market leans toward new highs or a retracement first, one thing is clear: as long as Bitcoin hovers near these pivotal zones, the next few daily closes will be crucial in shaping its medium-term trajectory.