Bitcoin's Bullish Momentum Fades as New Buyers Decline 15%

ARK Invest has identified a bearish signal for Bitcoin, despite the cryptocurrency's price remaining relatively stable. The investment management firm noted that Bitcoin's bullish momentum has begun to fade as the number of new buyers declines. This shift in market dynamics comes at a time when long-term holders of Bitcoin have reached a 15-year high, indicating a strong conviction among existing investors. Additionally, Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has surged to 65%, further emphasizing its leading position.

The bearish signal from ARK Invest is significant as it suggests a potential change in the market sentiment towards Bitcoin. The decline in new buyers could indicate a slowing of interest in the cryptocurrency, which may lead to a decrease in its price in the future. However, the high number of long-term holders and the increased dominance of Bitcoin in the market suggest that the cryptocurrency still has strong support among investors.

The stability of Bitcoin's price, despite the bearish signal, is a testament to its resilience. The cryptocurrency has been able to maintain its value despite the decline in new buyers, which is a positive sign for its long-term prospects. However, investors should be cautious and monitor the market closely for any signs of a potential price correction.

Capital flows decreased during the second quarter, with the number of new buyers entering the market continuing to decline. ARK Invest analysts wrote that data suggests Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value, or MVRV ratio, is currently near the two-year moving average. That’s a stark contrast to the positive momentum that has dominated 2024 and much of 2025. Bitcoin has failed to reach fresh all-time highs since May, despite the S&P 500 notching several new records over the past month. Despite this, ARK Invest argues there are reasons for Bitcoin traders to be cheerful.

The number of long-term BTC holders has accelerated to a 15-year high indicating "growing market conviction" in this cryptocurrency's role as a store of value. Addresses that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days now represent 74% of total supply. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at about $109,000. That contrasts with its main zone of support between $96,000 and $99,000, which means many short-term holders are sitting on paper profits. Its current price is also considerably above the 200-day moving average of $96,278, and the on-chain mean of $71,393.

BTC's share of the overall crypto market is also trending higher as altcoins underperform—reaching 65% for the first time since late 2020. Looking at the wider economy, ARK Invest noted that inflation is continually surprising to the downside, with the annualized Consumer Price Index averaging "well below expectations" at 1.5% between February and May. This could indicate that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates.

With Bitcoin's price volatility sinking to historical lows, analysts warned that investors should "beware the quiet"—but be prepared for "fireworks" in the second half of this year. The bearish signal from ARK Invest is not the only indicator of a potential change in the market sentiment towards Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a comprehensive tool for analyzing cryptocurrency sentiment, has also shown signs of a shift in market sentiment. The index takes into account critical market indicators, such as volatility, market momentum, and social media sentiment, to provide a comprehensive view of the market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies.

The bearish signal from ARK Invest and the shift in market sentiment towards Bitcoin are important indicators for investors to consider. While the cryptocurrency's price has remained stable, the decline in new buyers and the potential for a price correction should be taken into account. Investors should monitor the market closely and be prepared for any potential changes in the market sentiment towards Bitcoin.